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The Saker
A bird's eye view of the vineyard

offsite link Sitrep Operation Z: Open Thread Sun Jun 26, 2022 13:36 | amarynth
by the Saker Staff for the Saker Blog Wow, too much information out there in addition to the world happenings.  Today and tomorrow we have the G7 in Germany and

offsite link French vote shows the undemocratic rot of the pan-European project 2/2 Sun Jun 26, 2022 11:41 | amarynth
by Ramin Mazaheri and cross-posted with PressTV Part 1 discussed how a ?hung parliament? isn?t going to happen in France. President Emmanuel Macron won enough seats and can find plenty

offsite link Oh Now They?re Banning China Spreading Chinese In The UK! Sun Jun 26, 2022 11:21 | amarynth
There is a concerted effort by the Western powers to contain the spread of Chinese and to prevent China from teaching Mandarin in the West By Thorsten J. Pattberg for

offsite link Some Replies to Some Comments on Recent Articles Sun Jun 26, 2022 10:56 | amarynth
By Batiushka for the Saker Blog 1. Errors I do apologise for the rare error which comes from not checking the text enough times. For example, Kuleba is of course

offsite link ?That?s nonsense? ? Douglas MacGregor Sun Jun 26, 2022 10:50 | amarynth

The Saker >>

Public Inquiry
Interested in maladministration. Estd. 2005

offsite link RTE bias complaint

offsite link Fergus Finlay and the maternity hospital ‘gotcha’ trap Anthony

offsite link Irish Examiner and fake news Anthony

offsite link Labour Party: The unvarnished truth Anthony

offsite link Humanity: Zero chance of survival Anthony

Public Inquiry >>

Human Rights in Ireland
A Blog About Human Rights

offsite link UN human rights chief calls for priority action ahead of climate summit Sat Oct 30, 2021 17:18 | Human Rights

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Human Rights in Ireland >>

Lockdown Skeptics

The Daily Sceptic

offsite link New Analysis: Covid?s Infection Fatality Rate Now Same as Seasonal Flu Sun Jun 26, 2022 14:00 | Toby Young
The IFR of COVID-19 is now 0.0333%, according to a new analysis by Professor Carl Heneghan and Dr Jason Oke. About the same as seasonal flu, in other words. So no need for any more restrictions.
The post New Analysis: Covid’s Infection Fatality Rate Now Same as Seasonal Flu appeared first on The Daily Sceptic.

offsite link BBC Staff Told there are More than 150 Genders and Urged to Develop ?Trans Brand? Sun Jun 26, 2022 12:30 | Toby Young
Gender ideology continues to spread within the BBC, with the Telegraph revealing staff are being taught there are 150 genders and they should declare their pronouns to reduce "suicide risks" for trans people.
The post BBC Staff Told there are More than 150 Genders and Urged to Develop ?Trans Brand? appeared first on The Daily Sceptic.

offsite link In their Desperation to be Woke, Universities are Losing their Way Sun Jun 26, 2022 11:00 | Dr John Staddon
UCL has written a new 'vision and mission' statement that reads as if it was written not by an intelligent human being, but by a bot programmed to string together fashionable words in sequence.
The post In their Desperation to be Woke, Universities are Losing their Way appeared first on The Daily Sceptic.

offsite link EU Renews Vaccine Passport Scheme Despite Overwhelmingly Negative Public Feedback Sun Jun 26, 2022 09:00 | Will Jones
The European Parliament has voted to approve an EU Commission proposal to renew the EU Digital Covid Certificate for another year, despite 99% of the responses to the public consultation being opposed.
The post EU Renews Vaccine Passport Scheme Despite Overwhelmingly Negative Public Feedback appeared first on The Daily Sceptic.

offsite link The British Council has Been Captured by the Woke Cult Sun Jun 26, 2022 07:00 | Toby Young
The British Council has embraced the credo of 'decolonisation' and it won't breathe a word against China's brutal suppression of the pro-democracy movement in Hong Kong, that well known victim of colonial oppression.
The post The British Council has Been Captured by the Woke Cult appeared first on The Daily Sceptic.

Lockdown Skeptics >>

The Recession, Bank Bailout or our Deficit?

category national | eu | opinion/analysis author Tuesday May 01, 2012 09:27author by Sonya Oldham - The People's Association Watchdogauthor email irelandpaw at gmail dot com Report this post to the editors

Does the Fiscal Compact Treaty Deal with the Cause of the Crisis?

Does the Fiscal Compact Treaty Deal with the Cause of the Crisis? What Caused the Crisis? The collapse of the Irish banking system was principally caused by a failure of regulation and the reckless lending practices of the Irish and European banking system.

According to the Banking Enquiry: Financial integration in the euro area allowed banks in Ireland unprecedented access to cross-border funding. As in many smaller EU economies the entry of foreign banks intensified competition in lending. The banks’ ability to borrow cheaply in international wholesale markets created a ‘capital flow bonanza’ which has been observed to markedly increase the likelihood of a banking crisis within the receiving country. This clearly happened in Ireland.

According to the Assistant Director General,  Financial Institutions Supervision, Central Bank of Ireland:

In the 2000s, it is clear that the low ECB policy rate facilitated the growth of property prices in Ireland.

There was also no direct regulation of credit limits, for example through restrictions on LTV ratios.  This meant that Irish households were able to accumulate liabilities more easily than consumers in countries where there was stricter regulation. A contributing cause of the crisis was that bank governance and risk management were weak – in some cases disastrously so.

It appears that internal procedures were overridden, sometimes systematically. There is a need to probe more widely the scope of governance failings in banks and whether auditors were sufficiently vigilant in some episodes.

According to the Banking Enquiry: These supervisory problems must be seen in conjunction with the absence of forceful warnings from the central bank. However, the IMF’s major Financial System Stability Assessment of 2006 also did not sound the alarm.

According to the Assistant Director General,  Financial Institutions Supervision, Central Bank of Ireland: A striking lesson of the global banking crisis is the danger of allowing banks to operate to free market principles within free market economies.

Did Ireland overspend?

According to Paul Murphy MEP: This is simply not the case. In 2007, Ireland’s debt to GDP ratio was 24.8% (Eurostat) - far less than the 60% dictated in the Fiscal Treaty; our general budget was in surplus of 0.1% compared to a target of a deficit of 3%; and our structural balance was estimated by the EU Commission in spring 2008 to be in surplus of 0.2% compared to a target of a maximum deficit of 0.5%. Later on, the structural balance was revised downwards, with the Commission in 2011 saying that Ireland had a structural deficit of 1.4%. So having the strictures of the Fiscal Treaty in place would not have meant we avoided the economic crisis. In fact, the government would have been congratulated on having met the targets so effectively and with such high growth rates! The same is largely the case for Spain and Portugal, which had relatively low levels of public debt in advance of the economic crisis.

How Much is the Bailout Costing?
Bond payments September 2008 to April 2012 were €103.7bn
Bond payments from April 2012 onwards: €40.6bn

TOTAL BOND PAYMENTS (according to Michael Noonan): €144.3bn

THE COST: So far, according to Mr Noonan, the bank recapitalisation is €62.8bn (Anglo/INBS €34.7bn; AIB/EBS €20.7bn; BoI €4.7bn; IL&P €2.7bn). Given that according to Mr Noonan these banks still have over €40bn to pay, there is a good possibility we may have to recapitalise again. Also, this figure does NOT include interest lost on the money taken from the National Pension Reserve Fund, nor the interest we’ll have to pay on the borrowings needed to fund all that recapitalisation.
 
So we can see it was the bank and bondholder payouts that caused our deficit to take a downward spiral so will the Fiscal Compact Treaty be effective?
How can it when it does not deal with the cause of the collapse. The fiscal treaty, if it had been in place, would have been ineffective in preventing this recession as our country was within limits. This is not a crisis caused by government overspending, this is a crisis caused by the lack of financial regulation within Ireland and the EU. Todate we are still living with the moral hazard of the fiscal sector.

According to many leading economists this treaty will in fact make matters worse:

Roubini Global Economics: “In our view, the terms of the fiscal compact require a fiscal adjustment by most Eurozone countries that will significantly undermine their short-term growth prospects. If the treaty is not enforced, it will be positive for Eurozone growth prospects and therefore for fiscal sustainability.”

Vote No to the Fiscal Compact and Demand real solutions to this crisis!

The People's Association Watchdog; www.paw.ie; irelandpaw@gmail.com

Related Link: https://www.facebook.com/groups/133930466736433/
author by defaulterpublication date Wed May 02, 2012 15:59author address author phone Report this post to the editors

Sonya is providing a great information service on this nefarious treaty. Surely Sonya the best option is for the Irish people to follow the example of the people of Iceland and not pay. Basically we need to default. It is not the Irish people's debt so why should we pay the debts of bankers, builders and bondholders.

 
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