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Anti-Empire

offsite link That Time Blackwater and US Army Shot Ea... Sun Apr 28, 2024 12:54 | Marko Marjanović

offsite link Rheinmetall Plans to Make 700,000 Artill... Thu Apr 25, 2024 04:03 | Anti-Empire

offsite link America’s Shell Production Is Leaping,... Wed Apr 24, 2024 05:29 | Anti-Empire

offsite link Ukraine Keeps Snapping Up Chinese Drones Tue Apr 23, 2024 03:14 | Anti-Empire

offsite link Moscow Is Prosecuting the War on a Pathe... Mon Apr 22, 2024 12:26 | Anti-Empire

Anti-Empire >>

Human Rights in Ireland
A Blog About Human Rights

offsite link UN human rights chief calls for priority action ahead of climate summit Sat Oct 30, 2021 17:18 | Human Rights

offsite link 5 Year Anniversary Of Kem Ley?s Death Sun Jul 11, 2021 12:34 | Human Rights

offsite link Poor Living Conditions for Migrants in Southern Italy Mon Jan 18, 2021 10:14 | Human Rights

offsite link Right to Water Mon Aug 03, 2020 19:13 | Human Rights

offsite link Human Rights Fri Mar 20, 2020 16:33 | Human Rights

Human Rights in Ireland >>

Lockdown Skeptics

The Daily Sceptic

offsite link The WIV Was the Main Partner in the German-Chinese Virology Network Mon Apr 29, 2024 13:00 | Robert Kogon
Following on from his article on the HIV 'inserts' in SARS-CoV-2 and the HIV research being conducted in Wuhan, Robert Kogon discovers that the WIV was the main partner in the German-Chinese virology network.
The post The WIV Was the Main Partner in the German-Chinese Virology Network appeared first on The Daily Sceptic.

offsite link Humza Yousaf Resigns Mon Apr 29, 2024 11:11 | Will Jones
Humza Yousaf is expected to announce his resignation as Scotland?s First Minister at noon today after he pulled the plug on the coalition deal with the Scottish Greens and faced a no confidence vote.
The post Humza Yousaf Resigns appeared first on The Daily Sceptic.

offsite link Britain Would Have to Hand Over 20% of its Vaccines to the WHO Under Pandemic Treaty Mon Apr 29, 2024 09:00 | Richard Eldred
Britain would have to surrender 20% of its pandemic-related health products, including vaccines, and refrain from stockpiling supplies, under revised terms of the WHO's new pandemic treaty.
The post Britain Would Have to Hand Over 20% of its Vaccines to the WHO Under Pandemic Treaty appeared first on The Daily Sceptic.

offsite link Rishi?s Jeremiad Against ?Sick-Note Britain? is a Sick Joke, Given His Role in Paying People to Stay... Mon Apr 29, 2024 07:00 | J. Sorel
For Rishi Sunak to rail against 'sick-note Britain' is galling, given that as Chancellor he was responsible for paying workers 350 billion to stay at home and not work. Has he no self-awareness? asks J Sorel.
The post Rishi?s Jeremiad Against ?Sick-Note Britain? is a Sick Joke, Given His Role in Paying People to Stay at Home and Not Work During the Lockdown appeared first on The Daily Sceptic.

offsite link News Round-Up Mon Apr 29, 2024 00:43 | Richard Eldred
A summary of the most interesting stories in the past 24 hours that challenge the prevailing orthodoxy about the ?climate emergency?, public health ?crises? and the supposed moral defects of Western civilisation.
The post News Round-Up appeared first on The Daily Sceptic.

Lockdown Skeptics >>

Voltaire Network
Voltaire, international edition

offsite link Georgia and the financing of political organizations from abroad Sat Apr 27, 2024 05:37 | en

offsite link Voltaire, International Newsletter N84 Sat Apr 27, 2024 05:35 | en

offsite link Israel's complex relations with Iran, by Thierry Meyssan Wed Apr 24, 2024 05:25 | en

offsite link Iran's hypersonic missiles generate deterrence through terror, says Scott Ritter... Mon Apr 22, 2024 10:37 | en

offsite link When the West confuses Law and Politics Sat Apr 20, 2024 09:09 | en

Voltaire Network >>

Marko Marjanović - Sun Apr 28, 2024 12:54

It's June 2006, the height of the Iraq War. Luckily for you, you're not an orphan in Fallujah, but just another suburbanite in Fayetteville, North Carolina. It's a sleepy summer Saturday morning. As you're browsing the morning paper, your child is flipping channels. As he does so you catch half a second of a Bush speech. You'd normally never subject yourself to a Dubya speech, but this is unusual — why would the President be giving a speech at such an early hour? You tell the kid to switch back and your jaw drops.

Bush says that amid a tough and existential struggle against terrorism, a new Benedict Arnold has emerged to stab the nation in the back, to bring anarchy, fratricide, surrender and defeat. In light of that, Bush has issued orders to the DoD to deal harshly with this deadly internal threat. All who have taken up arms against the United States in this criminal and traitorous adventure consciously will answer to the people and be punished.

What the hell is going on? Civil war??? Bush mentions Blackwater and that Savannah has fallen but offers no specifics. You scramble to the internet to find out what's going on.

Turns out Blackwater is patrolling the streets of Savannah, has set up checkpoints around the city, and has even cordoned off the 4-star US Army general in the nearby Fort Stewart HQ along with his staff, effectively subjecting him to house arrest. What is more, 4000 Blackwaterites are marching up north from Savannah toward Arlington and Washington. Their stated goal is subjecting DoD chief Donald Rumsfeld to the same sort of house arrest and forcing his dismissal, but speculation is rife they're hoping their dash to the capital area destabilizes and topples Bush himself.

This might normally be called a mutiny, but seeing Blackwater is a separate organization from the US military, and a private one at that, the proper term is a coup. Like some hapless Panamanian, you now have the dubious privilege of watching the progress of a coup in motion against your national government in real-time. A coup that will determine your future, and of your country, and that you're helpless to influence. Unthinkable! What has this country sunk to?!

As you try to follow the advance of the Blackwater column on the interwebs, the news comes in. The mercenaries have shot down a US Army helicopter. And another. And another. US Army deaths are almost certain. And in an hour or two the private army will be passing through your Fayetteville.

Indeed, just as they enter your town they blow out a USAF surveillance plane out of the sky above it, as videos of the incident that hit your Facebook soon confirm. The fuckers! You aren't even that much of a support-the-troops guy, you were never for the war in the first place, you backed Howard Dean. But this is too much! Somebody is killing US military men right on US soil — and it's a fucking corporation!

You never thought you'd say this but this is one Bush war you're going to support! Dubya, go and ring Erik Prince's neck! Crush these merc killers of troops! Sure, after it’s done Bush will have to answer for allowing the situation to get so far from under him, and for getting in bed with these entitled criminals in the first place, but for now, he needs to do as promised and unleash the Pentagon against these murder yuppies!

Your first foray into backing a Bush war does not go too well. As far as you can see resistance to Blackwater consists of local mayors taking the initiative to improvise makeshift roadblocks, and Army engineers reportedly blowing up a few bridges. There are a few videos of what seems to be an aircraft targeting the Blackwater column, but it appears others were downed “preemptively” without ever firing on the mercenaries. There is talk of a “defensive line” being constructed but that is only at Washington outskirts. If after the jaw-dropping “stab in the back” speech you expected a Bush hammer to come down on Blackwater there isn't one in sight, which allows the 4000-merc column to cover 1000 km from Savannah to Virginia, coming within 300 km of the capital, mainly unopposed.

Instead, come evening, the exact opposite news hits. After the mediation of Tony Blair an agreement has been reached and Bush, the United States government, Erik Prince and Blackwater are back to being friends and back in business. Blackwater recruitment billboards that authorities had started to take down are being put right back up, and the Blackwater skyscraper in New York that was closed by the police is right back to being open again.

What the bloody hell?! After that speech on how the wartime backstabbers will face the punishment of the people? After the Blackwaterites shot up to half a dozen US aircraft, killing at least a dozen US airmen in a day?? They're going right back on the taxpayer payroll?? What kind of a godawful banana republic is this?!?

Read the rest at Anti-Empire's Substack: LINK

(It's a bunch of work to copy this to two places, time better spent researching.)

It's June 2006, the height of the Iraq War. Luckily for you, you're not an orphan in Fallujah, but just another suburbanite in Fayetteville, North Carolina. It's a sleepy summer Saturday morning. As you're browsing the morning paper, your child is flipping channels. As he does so you catch half a second of a Bush speech. You'd normally never subject yourself to a Dubya speech, but this is unusual — why would the President be giving a speech at such an early hour? You tell the kid to switch back and your jaw drops.

Bush says that amid a tough and existential struggle against terrorism, a new Benedict Arnold has emerged to stab the nation in the back, to bring anarchy, fratricide, surrender and defeat. In light of that, Bush has issued orders to the DoD to deal harshly with this deadly internal threat. All who have taken up arms against the United States in this criminal and traitorous adventure consciously will answer to the people and be punished.

What the hell is going on? Civil war??? Bush mentions Blackwater and that Savannah has fallen but offers no specifics. You scramble to the internet to find out what's going on.

Turns out Blackwater is patrolling the streets of Savannah, has set up checkpoints around the city, and has even cordoned off the 4-star US Army general in the nearby Fort Stewart HQ along with his staff, effectively subjecting him to house arrest. What is more, 4000 Blackwaterites are marching up north from Savannah toward Arlington and Washington. Their stated goal is subjecting DoD chief Donald Rumsfeld to the same sort of house arrest and forcing his dismissal, but speculation is rife they're hoping their dash to the capital area destabilizes and topples Bush himself.

This might normally be called a mutiny, but seeing Blackwater is a separate organization from the US military, and a private one at that, the proper term is a coup. Like some hapless Panamanian, you now have the dubious privilege of watching the progress of a coup in motion against your national government in real-time. A coup that will determine your future, and of your country, and that you're helpless to influence. Unthinkable! What has this country sunk to?!

As you try to follow the advance of the Blackwater column on the interwebs, the news comes in. The mercenaries have shot down a US Army helicopter. And another. And another. US Army deaths are almost certain. And in an hour or two the private army will be passing through your Fayetteville.

Indeed, just as they enter your town they blow out a USAF surveillance plane out of the sky above it, as videos of the incident that hit your Facebook soon confirm. The fuckers! You aren't even that much of a support-the-troops guy, you were never for the war in the first place, you backed Howard Dean. But this is too much! Somebody is killing US military men right on US soil — and it's a fucking corporation!

You never thought you'd say this but this is one Bush war you're going to support! Dubya, go and ring Erik Prince's neck! Crush these merc killers of troops! Sure, after it’s done Bush will have to answer for allowing the situation to get so far from under him, and for getting in bed with these entitled criminals in the first place, but for now, he needs to do as promised and unleash the Pentagon against these murder yuppies!

Your first foray into backing a Bush war does not go too well. As far as you can see resistance to Blackwater consists of local mayors taking the initiative to improvise makeshift roadblocks, and Army engineers reportedly blowing up a few bridges. There are a few videos of what seems to be an aircraft targeting the Blackwater column, but it appears others were downed “preemptively” without ever firing on the mercenaries. There is talk of a “defensive line” being constructed but that is only at Washington outskirts. If after the jaw-dropping “stab in the back” speech you expected a Bush hammer to come down on Blackwater there isn't one in sight, which allows the 4000-merc column to cover 1000 km from Savannah to Virginia, coming within 300 km of the capital, mainly unopposed.

Instead, come evening, the exact opposite news hits. After the mediation of Tony Blair an agreement has been reached and Bush, the United States government, Erik Prince and Blackwater are back to being friends and back in business. Blackwater recruitment billboards that authorities had started to take down are being put right back up, and the Blackwater skyscraper in New York that was closed by the police is right back to being open again.

What the bloody hell?! After that speech on how the wartime backstabbers will face the punishment of the people? After the Blackwaterites shot up to half a dozen US aircraft, killing at least a dozen US airmen in a day?? They're going right back on the taxpayer payroll?? What kind of a godawful banana republic is this?!?

Read the rest at Anti-Empire's Substack: LINK

(It's a bunch of work to copy this to two places, time better spent researching.)

Anti-Empire - Thu Apr 25, 2024 04:03

Rheinmetall was making 70,000 shells per annum before the war, plans to build some 450,000 this year, 700,000 in 2025, and 1 million by 2027.

If these targets are met by the end of this year the US Army and Rheinmetall will be jointly producing roughly 110,000 shells monthly, or 3500 daily. Great many of them will be sent to tear Russian soldiers apart (imagine the converse of Putin daring to send ammunition to Afghans).

This does not include 155 mm production in France and South Korea, and production of 152 mm and 122 mm in places like Czechia and Bulgaria. These aren't on the same scale as America's and Rheinmetall's but everything adds up.

Last month Putin stated it would be "ridiculous" for Russia to negotiate "just because Ukraine is running out of ammunition". This is bravado. The reason some shaky and temporary truce right now would be bad for Moscow isn't because Ukraine is running out, but because from here on Ukraine's ammunition situation will only improve.

The Russian advantage in having a foe that can afford to fire a mere 1000 rounds per day will not last. The West was not lightning-quick in making investments in capacity, but Putin failed to do very much with that. Advantage that existed was not taken.

https://twitter.com/ricwe123/status/1768021499603214590

If an investment of X in lives, men, and treasure, would have been enough to defeat Kiev in 2022, then it would now take an investment of 5X to accomplish the same.

Between the expansion of Kiev's army, its growing experience, and the capital investments being made in the West to better serve as its industrial rear, with each day Kiev is becoming a more difficult foe to subdue, not a feebler one.

Rheinmetall was making 70,000 shells per annum before the war, plans to build some 450,000 this year, 700,000 in 2025, and 1 million by 2027.

If these targets are met by the end of this year the US Army and Rheinmetall will be jointly producing roughly 110,000 shells monthly, or 3500 daily. Great many of them will be sent to tear Russian soldiers apart (imagine the converse of Putin daring to send ammunition to Afghans).

This does not include 155 mm production in France and South Korea, and production of 152 mm and 122 mm in places like Czechia and Bulgaria. These aren't on the same scale as America's and Rheinmetall's but everything adds up.

Last month Putin stated it would be "ridiculous" for Russia to negotiate "just because Ukraine is running out of ammunition". This is bravado. The reason some shaky and temporary truce right now would be bad for Moscow isn't because Ukraine is running out, but because from here on Ukraine's ammunition situation will only improve.

The Russian advantage in having a foe that can afford to fire a mere 1000 rounds per day will not last. The West was not lightning-quick in making investments in capacity, but Putin failed to do very much with that. Advantage that existed was not taken.

https://twitter.com/ricwe123/status/1768021499603214590

If an investment of X in lives, men, and treasure, would have been enough to defeat Kiev in 2022, then it would now take an investment of 5X to accomplish the same.

Between the expansion of Kiev's army, its growing experience, and the capital investments being made in the West to better serve as its industrial rear, with each day Kiev is becoming a more difficult foe to subdue, not a feebler one.

Anti-Empire - Wed Apr 24, 2024 05:29

Interestingly, the US does not buy artillery shells from the corporate defense sector, but instead produces them in government-owned munitions plants. (Albeit a contractor is apparently hired to operate the taxpayer-owned plants.)

Anyhow, at the start of the war these American armories were making 14,000 155 mm artillery rounds.

After the war started the US Army invested $1.45 billion to expand the production capacity. (It is not clear to me if this money was allocated in May 2022 or December 2022. The latter seems likelier.)

The result was that by October 2023 the production had doubled to 28,000 rounds monthly.

In November 2023 the Army allocated a further $1.5 billion to invest in capacity.

And the passing of the "Ukraine aid" bill last week allocates yet another $3.1 billion to expand production.

Some of the money will go toward building an entirely new ammunition plant in Texas that will be the most automated to date.

On October 2023 Army said it was planning to be building roughly 37 thousand rounds per month by April 2024, 60 thousand by October 2024, and 100 thousand by October 2025.

Thus 18 months from now the US will be producing over 3300 rounds daily.

Some of these will go toward replenishing the partly depleted US stockpile, but I predict that as long as the war rages the majority will be going to Ukraine.

Currently Russia fires about 6000 artillery rounds daily, while the Ukrainians are back to firing just 1000. (They were firing up to 5000-6000 themselves during their attempted 2023 offensive.)

As we have seen this is a temporary state of affairs. US capacity to supply Ukraine with shells is increasing quite rapidly. The EU has been slower in ramping up, but its capacity is rising as well.

Some two years from now the Ukrainians could themselves be firing 5000 rounds daily.

By failing to knock out Ukraine quickly, Russia has granted Washington the opportunity to beef up Kiev and greatly intensify the fratricidal Slavic slaughter.

Interestingly, the US does not buy artillery shells from the corporate defense sector, but instead produces them in government-owned munitions plants. (Albeit a contractor is apparently hired to operate the taxpayer-owned plants.)

Anyhow, at the start of the war these American armories were making 14,000 155 mm artillery rounds.

After the war started the US Army invested $1.45 billion to expand the production capacity. (It is not clear to me if this money was allocated in May 2022 or December 2022. The latter seems likelier.)

The result was that by October 2023 the production had doubled to 28,000 rounds monthly.

In November 2023 the Army allocated a further $1.5 billion to invest in capacity.

And the passing of the "Ukraine aid" bill last week allocates yet another $3.1 billion to expand production.

Some of the money will go toward building an entirely new ammunition plant in Texas that will be the most automated to date.

On October 2023 Army said it was planning to be building roughly 37 thousand rounds per month by April 2024, 60 thousand by October 2024, and 100 thousand by October 2025.

Thus 18 months from now the US will be producing over 3300 rounds daily.

Some of these will go toward replenishing the partly depleted US stockpile, but I predict that as long as the war rages the majority will be going to Ukraine.

Currently Russia fires about 6000 artillery rounds daily, while the Ukrainians are back to firing just 1000. (They were firing up to 5000-6000 themselves during their attempted 2023 offensive.)

As we have seen this is a temporary state of affairs. US capacity to supply Ukraine with shells is increasing quite rapidly. The EU has been slower in ramping up, but its capacity is rising as well.

Some two years from now the Ukrainians could themselves be firing 5000 rounds daily.

By failing to knock out Ukraine quickly, Russia has granted Washington the opportunity to beef up Kiev and greatly intensify the fratricidal Slavic slaughter.

Anti-Empire - Tue Apr 23, 2024 03:14

Yesterday Ukrainian Ministry of Defense has announced it has signed a contract for the supply of 4000 Chinese DJI Mavic 3 drones for 14.5 million USD.

It has already allocated money for another 16,000 such machines.

This is simply business as usual since a great deal of DJI's output ends up in Ukraine:

The Oct. 8 statement made by Denys Shmyhal at the Kyiv International Economic Forum that Ukraine is effectively buying 60% of DJI’s global output of Mavic quadcopter drones, even though the vendor officially prohibits selling to militaries, highlights how commercial technology with military utility can permeate conflict zones practically unimpeded.

According to a recent New York Times report based on official Ukrainian and Russian customs data from a third-party provider, between January and June, Kyiv is estimated to have received “millions” of Chinese-made drones and spare parts, primarily coming from European intermediaries.

DJI announced in spring 2022 that it will sell to neither Ukraine nor Russia. At that time the fear in the West was that DJI would be supplying Russia, so this was a way for DJI to get ahead of such allegations and avert sanctions.

Instead what has happened is that DJI has effectively become a part of, primarily, the Ukrainian military machine, and only secondarily of the Russian one.

Though to be perfectly fair it isn't entirely clear how DJI could prevent resales to Ukraine. (Or to Russia.)

Yesterday Ukrainian Ministry of Defense has announced it has signed a contract for the supply of 4000 Chinese DJI Mavic 3 drones for 14.5 million USD.

It has already allocated money for another 16,000 such machines.

This is simply business as usual since a great deal of DJI's output ends up in Ukraine:

The Oct. 8 statement made by Denys Shmyhal at the Kyiv International Economic Forum that Ukraine is effectively buying 60% of DJI’s global output of Mavic quadcopter drones, even though the vendor officially prohibits selling to militaries, highlights how commercial technology with military utility can permeate conflict zones practically unimpeded.

According to a recent New York Times report based on official Ukrainian and Russian customs data from a third-party provider, between January and June, Kyiv is estimated to have received “millions” of Chinese-made drones and spare parts, primarily coming from European intermediaries.

DJI announced in spring 2022 that it will sell to neither Ukraine nor Russia. At that time the fear in the West was that DJI would be supplying Russia, so this was a way for DJI to get ahead of such allegations and avert sanctions.

Instead what has happened is that DJI has effectively become a part of, primarily, the Ukrainian military machine, and only secondarily of the Russian one.

Though to be perfectly fair it isn't entirely clear how DJI could prevent resales to Ukraine. (Or to Russia.)

Anti-Empire - Mon Apr 22, 2024 12:26

You may have heard the information that Russia's 2024 federal budget devotes 38% of spending to "National defense and national security".

Indeed, media in the West is saying the Russia is now running a "war budget". Is that true?

29% of the federal budget is indeed earmarked for the military, while 8% of it will be spent on "national security".

But what is "national security" spending in Russia?

That is spending on the Rossgvardia gendarmes, prison guards, the small foreign intelligence service, and the FSB and border guards.

So in fact this "national security" spending contributes very little to the war, and has very little to do with the war.

So in fact the share of the Russian federal budget that goes to the war is actually just 29%.

Moreover the federal budget is not equal to government spending. For example in 2023 30 trillion rubles were spent through the federal budget, and 19.5 trillion through regional budgets.

So the federal budget accounts for only about 60% of government spending. Thus Russia's defense spending for 2024 will be only 17.5 percent of government spending.

Moreover as the federal budget represents 20% of GDP, defense spending in 2024 will represent 6% of GDP.

Is 6% of GDP a lot, or a little?

Let's put it in context.

6% of GDP is what Reagan was spending in mid-1980s in peacetime. It is also two to three times less than what the Soviet Union was spending during Reagan.

So then is Russia's 2024 federal budget a "war budget"? No, it is not.

It is a substantial increase over 2023 in which just 4% of GDP went to defense, yes. But it still isn't any sort of a "war budget".

What it actually is, is the last peace budget. It devotes as much as possible to the military, but only under the constraints of neither growing government spending nor cutting into services.

Government spending will grow only minimally from some 30% to some 32% of GDP. Health and education meanwhile will receive the same amount of funding as in 2023 but due to inflation this is actually a slight decrease in real terms.

A true war budget, a true economic mobilization for the war means that government spending sharply rises as % of GDP, even as services are cut.

It also means that everyone becomes noticeably poorer as labor and industrial capacity abandon consumer goods for war goods.

The 2024 budget isn't that. It doesn't radically intervene in Russian living standards. In fact it is the opposite. It is a budget that clings to normalcy amid a war with 100,000 Russian dead, and against a bloc with 20 times the population and 25 times the economy.

By contrast SIPRI estimates that Kiev, which is actually aware it is in a war, spent 37% of GDP on it last year, and has government spending accounting for 64% of GDP. (Though some of that is enabled by foreign financial aid, mainly by the EU.)

You may have heard the information that Russia's 2024 federal budget devotes 38% of spending to "National defense and national security".

Indeed, media in the West is saying the Russia is now running a "war budget". Is that true?

29% of the federal budget is indeed earmarked for the military, while 8% of it will be spent on "national security".

But what is "national security" spending in Russia?

That is spending on the Rossgvardia gendarmes, prison guards, the small foreign intelligence service, and the FSB and border guards.

So in fact this "national security" spending contributes very little to the war, and has very little to do with the war.

So in fact the share of the Russian federal budget that goes to the war is actually just 29%.

Moreover the federal budget is not equal to government spending. For example in 2023 30 trillion rubles were spent through the federal budget, and 19.5 trillion through regional budgets.

So the federal budget accounts for only about 60% of government spending. Thus Russia's defense spending for 2024 will be only 17.5 percent of government spending.

Moreover as the federal budget represents 20% of GDP, defense spending in 2024 will represent 6% of GDP.

Is 6% of GDP a lot, or a little?

Let's put it in context.

6% of GDP is what Reagan was spending in mid-1980s in peacetime. It is also two to three times less than what the Soviet Union was spending during Reagan.

So then is Russia's 2024 federal budget a "war budget"? No, it is not.

It is a substantial increase over 2023 in which just 4% of GDP went to defense, yes. But it still isn't any sort of a "war budget".

What it actually is, is the last peace budget. It devotes as much as possible to the military, but only under the constraints of neither growing government spending nor cutting into services.

Government spending will grow only minimally from some 30% to some 32% of GDP. Health and education meanwhile will receive the same amount of funding as in 2023 but due to inflation this is actually a slight decrease in real terms.

A true war budget, a true economic mobilization for the war means that government spending sharply rises as % of GDP, even as services are cut.

It also means that everyone becomes noticeably poorer as labor and industrial capacity abandon consumer goods for war goods.

The 2024 budget isn't that. It doesn't radically intervene in Russian living standards. In fact it is the opposite. It is a budget that clings to normalcy amid a war with 100,000 Russian dead, and against a bloc with 20 times the population and 25 times the economy.

By contrast SIPRI estimates that Kiev, which is actually aware it is in a war, spent 37% of GDP on it last year, and has government spending accounting for 64% of GDP. (Though some of that is enabled by foreign financial aid, mainly by the EU.)

Anti-Empire - Sun Apr 21, 2024 05:57

Ukraine aid bill was stuck for nearly 6 months because the GOP House Speaker Michael Johnson, afraid for his political future, wouldn't put it up for a vote.

The issue was that while Democrats were desperate to pass the aid, his own Republicans had certain qualms about some aspects of it.

Also Republicans wanted concessions from Democrats on other issues in order to pass it, since the Democrats wanted this more.

The group of Republicans who most opposed the aid bill warned Johnson that putting up the bill up for a vote for Democrats to pass would result in a vote to oust him as Speaker.

However on April 12 Johnson and Trump met and Trump heaped praise on Johnson.

Within days of the meeting, Johnson signaled he would put the bill up for a vote.

April 20 the bill went up for a vote and passed despite most Republicans voting against it.

Nearly half a year of indecision ends as soon as Johnson makes the pilgrimage to Mar-a-Lago where Trump publicly backs him as Speaker. Draw your own conclusions.

 

https://twitter.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1782043763214373118

Ukraine aid bill was stuck for nearly 6 months because the GOP House Speaker Michael Johnson, afraid for his political future, wouldn't put it up for a vote.

The issue was that while Democrats were desperate to pass the aid, his own Republicans had certain qualms about some aspects of it.

Also Republicans wanted concessions from Democrats on other issues in order to pass it, since the Democrats wanted this more.

The group of Republicans who most opposed the aid bill warned Johnson that putting up the bill up for a vote for Democrats to pass would result in a vote to oust him as Speaker.

However on April 12 Johnson and Trump met and Trump heaped praise on Johnson.

Within days of the meeting, Johnson signaled he would put the bill up for a vote.

April 20 the bill went up for a vote and passed despite most Republicans voting against it.

Nearly half a year of indecision ends as soon as Johnson makes the pilgrimage to Mar-a-Lago where Trump publicly backs him as Speaker. Draw your own conclusions.

 

https://twitter.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1782043763214373118

Anti-Empire - Sat Apr 20, 2024 01:38

Alexander Sirski was born in Russia to ethnic Russian parents. When he was 15 his family moved to Kharkov in Ukraine when his father — a military man — was transferred there.

After graduating high school in Ukraine he attended a military school in Moscow. Upon graduation in 1986 he won commission to the Soviet Army and served in the Soviet War in Afghanistan.

As a Soviet officer he would have been a member of the Communist Party.

When the Soviet Union dissolved in 1991 Sirski was stationed in Kharkov in Ukraine, thus his unit passed into the Ukrainian military.

In February Sirski was appointed the overall commander of the Ukrainian military, replacing Valeri Zaluzhni.

It is said Zelensky replaced Zaluzhni because of Zaluzhni's great popularity. He was starting to be seen as someone who could easily become Ukraine's next president.

Zaluzhni had also candidly spoken about the necessity of mobilizing hundreds of thousands more, which initially shocked Zelensky.

At the start of the war until his promotion Sirski was the overall commander of the Ground Army. A post he held since 2019.

He is a veteran of the 2014-15 Donbass war, and was the overall commander of the Ukrainian forces in Donbass in 2017.

Alexander Sirski was born in Russia to ethnic Russian parents. When he was 15 his family moved to Kharkov in Ukraine when his father — a military man — was transferred there.

After graduating high school in Ukraine he attended a military school in Moscow. Upon graduation in 1986 he won commission to the Soviet Army and served in the Soviet War in Afghanistan.

As a Soviet officer he would have been a member of the Communist Party.

When the Soviet Union dissolved in 1991 Sirski was stationed in Kharkov in Ukraine, thus his unit passed into the Ukrainian military.

In February Sirski was appointed the overall commander of the Ukrainian military, replacing Valeri Zaluzhni.

It is said Zelensky replaced Zaluzhni because of Zaluzhni's great popularity. He was starting to be seen as someone who could easily become Ukraine's next president.

Zaluzhni had also candidly spoken about the necessity of mobilizing hundreds of thousands more, which initially shocked Zelensky.

At the start of the war until his promotion Sirski was the overall commander of the Ground Army. A post he held since 2019.

He is a veteran of the 2014-15 Donbass war, and was the overall commander of the Ukrainian forces in Donbass in 2017.

Anti-Empire - Fri Apr 19, 2024 06:15

Ukraine started work to produce 155mm self-propelled artillery in spring of 2022, and produced the first units in January 2023.

In December 2023 the production stood at 6 units per month, now it's up to 10 Zelensky has announced, and promises production rate will continue to climb.

So far the Ukrainian army has accepted about 40 to 50 of these. In a year we could be talking about annual production of 200 units.

Ukraine is also considering building cheaper towed heavy artillery.

Ukraine started work to produce 155mm self-propelled artillery in spring of 2022, and produced the first units in January 2023.

In December 2023 the production stood at 6 units per month, now it's up to 10 Zelensky has announced, and promises production rate will continue to climb.

So far the Ukrainian army has accepted about 40 to 50 of these. In a year we could be talking about annual production of 200 units.

Ukraine is also considering building cheaper towed heavy artillery.

Bloomberg - Wed Apr 17, 2024 08:58

Intensifying Ukrainian drone attacks are forcing Russian companies to find ways to protect their own plants and factories instead of relying on the military, providing an unexpected boost to radar and warfare-equipment producers.

Tender data show that demand for private systems to repel unmanned aerial vehicles, or UAVs, has quadrupled over the past year. At the same time, Russia has managed to at least double output of this sort of equipment since the start of the war, Bloomberg Economics estimates.

“Russia will likely be able to make its refineries and other high-value structures less vulnerable to drone strikes over the coming quarters,” said Russia economist Alex Isakov, of Bloomberg Economics. Much of the ramp up has happened over a period of relatively mild enforcement of trade sanctions, including around the transshipment of electronic components, he added.

Ukraine’s defense against Russia’s invasion has entered a new phase with Kyiv increasingly using homegrown drone technology against some of the country’s most important manufacturers. Russian oil refineries have been hit hardest as Ukraine seeks to cut fuel supplies to the Kremlin’s armed forces and the flow of petrodollars into Russia’s coffers.

Russia was discussing the deployment of military-grade defenses at oil plants, but nothing has been publicly announced yet, though officials have said they’re working with industry to protect these sites. Ukraine has also struck some metals industry facilities, and earlier this month hit a refinery in the Tatarstan region, far from the border with Ukraine.

As the war increasingly spills into Russian territory, private companies are fueling demand for special electronic warfare systems. According to one local electronic procurement platform, Tenderpro, which says it is used by more than 300,000 Russian companies, about a third of all tenders for anti-UAV systems were carried out by oil and gas enterprises. Industrial and mining companies account for 28% and 10% of cases, respectively.

The war has led to “explosive growth” in the electronic warfare market, and production has not yet kept pace with demand, said Andrey Klyuev, chief executive officer of local radar-equipment producer Umirs. “The threat is growing much faster than the manufacturers can handle,” he said, speaking at a conference on anti-UAV technologies in Moscow.

Still, the production of radars and radio remote-control equipment — the statistical category in which anti-drone systems fall — is starting the year with strong momentum. Output increased two-fold in February compared with the same period in 2023, according to the latest Federal Statistics Service data, the second month in a row of skyrocketing growth.

Electronic warfare equipment isn’t invincible against drone attacks, but can significantly limit damage. Those defenses thwarted a strike on the Slavneft plant in Yaroslavl, the sixth largest oil refinery in Russia, which purchased its protective systems from a Rostec State Corp subsidiary. At the same time, the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery was attacked by drones that were downed by electronic warfare systems, resulting in debris falling onto the property.

Both the Syzran Refinery and the Novokuybyshevsk Refinery, purchased anti-UAV systems in the end of 2022 and beginning of 2023, according to tender data, analyzed by Bloomberg.

According to Bloomberg calculations based on data from available government procurement portals, state-owned companies and government agencies spent at least 1.7 billion rubles ($18.4 million) on electronic security last year. Most of that spending was to protect utilities and energy infrastructure, including a nuclear power plant 200 kilometers (124 miles) from the border with Ukraine.

It’s nearly impossible to estimate how much money Russian corporations have spent on anti-drone protection based on public data, because the procurement announcements are published on various platforms, and Russian authorities allow companies that are targeted by international sanctions to classify their procurement data. According to Tenderpro, the largest single anti-drone equipment purchase amounted to 45 million rubles, while 36% of companies purchase expensive stationary and mobile systems costing more than 1 million rubles ($10,845).

Apart from expensive electronics, companies have also been compelled to invest in constructing physical barriers, strengthening existing structures and insuring themselves against damage. Tenderpro has seen a threefold increase in interest for insuring against drone damage, according to Elena Astafieva, the Moscow-based platform’s commercial director.

Source: Bloomberg

Intensifying Ukrainian drone attacks are forcing Russian companies to find ways to protect their own plants and factories instead of relying on the military, providing an unexpected boost to radar and warfare-equipment producers.

Tender data show that demand for private systems to repel unmanned aerial vehicles, or UAVs, has quadrupled over the past year. At the same time, Russia has managed to at least double output of this sort of equipment since the start of the war, Bloomberg Economics estimates.

“Russia will likely be able to make its refineries and other high-value structures less vulnerable to drone strikes over the coming quarters,” said Russia economist Alex Isakov, of Bloomberg Economics. Much of the ramp up has happened over a period of relatively mild enforcement of trade sanctions, including around the transshipment of electronic components, he added.

Ukraine’s defense against Russia’s invasion has entered a new phase with Kyiv increasingly using homegrown drone technology against some of the country’s most important manufacturers. Russian oil refineries have been hit hardest as Ukraine seeks to cut fuel supplies to the Kremlin’s armed forces and the flow of petrodollars into Russia’s coffers.

Russia was discussing the deployment of military-grade defenses at oil plants, but nothing has been publicly announced yet, though officials have said they’re working with industry to protect these sites. Ukraine has also struck some metals industry facilities, and earlier this month hit a refinery in the Tatarstan region, far from the border with Ukraine.

As the war increasingly spills into Russian territory, private companies are fueling demand for special electronic warfare systems. According to one local electronic procurement platform, Tenderpro, which says it is used by more than 300,000 Russian companies, about a third of all tenders for anti-UAV systems were carried out by oil and gas enterprises. Industrial and mining companies account for 28% and 10% of cases, respectively.

The war has led to “explosive growth” in the electronic warfare market, and production has not yet kept pace with demand, said Andrey Klyuev, chief executive officer of local radar-equipment producer Umirs. “The threat is growing much faster than the manufacturers can handle,” he said, speaking at a conference on anti-UAV technologies in Moscow.

Still, the production of radars and radio remote-control equipment — the statistical category in which anti-drone systems fall — is starting the year with strong momentum. Output increased two-fold in February compared with the same period in 2023, according to the latest Federal Statistics Service data, the second month in a row of skyrocketing growth.

Electronic warfare equipment isn’t invincible against drone attacks, but can significantly limit damage. Those defenses thwarted a strike on the Slavneft plant in Yaroslavl, the sixth largest oil refinery in Russia, which purchased its protective systems from a Rostec State Corp subsidiary. At the same time, the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery was attacked by drones that were downed by electronic warfare systems, resulting in debris falling onto the property.

Both the Syzran Refinery and the Novokuybyshevsk Refinery, purchased anti-UAV systems in the end of 2022 and beginning of 2023, according to tender data, analyzed by Bloomberg.

According to Bloomberg calculations based on data from available government procurement portals, state-owned companies and government agencies spent at least 1.7 billion rubles ($18.4 million) on electronic security last year. Most of that spending was to protect utilities and energy infrastructure, including a nuclear power plant 200 kilometers (124 miles) from the border with Ukraine.

It’s nearly impossible to estimate how much money Russian corporations have spent on anti-drone protection based on public data, because the procurement announcements are published on various platforms, and Russian authorities allow companies that are targeted by international sanctions to classify their procurement data. According to Tenderpro, the largest single anti-drone equipment purchase amounted to 45 million rubles, while 36% of companies purchase expensive stationary and mobile systems costing more than 1 million rubles ($10,845).

Apart from expensive electronics, companies have also been compelled to invest in constructing physical barriers, strengthening existing structures and insuring themselves against damage. Tenderpro has seen a threefold increase in interest for insuring against drone damage, according to Elena Astafieva, the Moscow-based platform’s commercial director.

Source: Bloomberg

Antonia Kotseva - Fri Jan 20, 2023 08:34

Editor's note: Remember when in the first half of 2022 Russia was bombing fuel depots? Well a lot of that fuel (40% by one disputed account) was Russian, imported via Bulgaria and refined in a Lukoil refinery in Bulgaria.


Source: Euractiv

In 2022, Ukraine bought a huge amount of fuels from Bulgaria made from Russian oil, according to data by the Bulgarian National Statistical Institute, provided exclusively to EURACTIV Bulgaria.

From January to November 2022, Bulgaria exported €700 million worth of fuels to Ukraine, and if the trend continues in December, the total value for the year will exceed €825 million. Compared to the period before the war, this is a 1,000-fold increase, as Bulgaria’s 2021 fuel exports to Ukraine totalled only €750,000.

The current scale of Bulgarian oil exports to Ukraine is so large that it corresponds to about 1% of the size of the entire Bulgarian economy.

The main fuel export from Bulgaria to Ukraine is gas oil (also known as red diesel), which makes up more than 90% of deliveries.

Gasoline supplies have also increased rapidly over the past six months, which is explained by Russian attacks on Ukrainian critical infrastructure. Diesel fuel is used in heavy industry to power machinery, generators, and off-road vehicles [such as tanks], as well as in agriculture and marine shipping.

The producer of gas oil in Bulgaria is the country’s only refinery, located in the port city of Burgas, owned by the Russian oil company Lukoil, which still operates mainly with Russian oil imported by tankers via the Black Sea, thanks to a derogation from EU sanctions.

The refinery in Burgas can afford to export fuel at significantly lower prices because it works with its own raw material. Last year, because of Western sanctions, Russian oil prices on world markets were on average $20-30 per barrel lower than stock market prices.

Bulgarian statistics show that Ukraine is now the Balkan country’s third-largest trading partner thanks to the export of fuels, having replaced the USA. In 2021, Ukraine ranked eighth among the countries outside the ЕU as a destination for Bulgarian exports.

Fuel exports from Bulgaria to Ukraine peaked in November 2022, when €130 million worth of petroleum products were exported.

The avalanche of oil exports то Ukraine began in May, when €40 million worth of products were exported, and reached €105 million in June. From June until the end of the year, levels were consistently high.

The period of the highest fuel sales to Ukraine coincides with the administration of the caretaker government of President Rumen Radev, who is accused by his opponents of being pro-Russian.

Radev is a staunch opponent of sending Bulgarian weapons to Ukraine but although divided, the parliament did not listen to him and a majority decided to send weapons at the end of last year.

Bulgaria protects its business

On 13 January, the Bulgarian parliament passed a law that allows fuels produced from Russian oil to be exported only to Ukraine. However, there is a loophole in the law that allows trade with other countries outside the EU for the fuels produced by Lukoil in Bulgaria, for which there is no market in Bulgaria.

This raises the question of the possible re-export of fuels from Russian oil to the EU, but only after they have been sold by Bulgaria to a country outside the EU.

If the oil originates from another country, for example, Kazakhstan, but has passed through Russia in transit, the new Bulgarian law says it can be imported into Bulgaria and the products can be sold on the European market.

At the end of last year, Lukoil announced its intention to make Bulgaria its main base in the EU. The Russian company promised to pay hundreds of millions of euros in taxes in Bulgaria if it is allowed to export its oil production in the country. Lukoil’s refinery in the Bulgarian city of Burgas is the largest in the Balkans.

A temporary derogation under the EU’s sixth sanctions package against Russia was foreseen for imports of crude oil by pipeline into those EU member states that, because of their geographic situation, suffer from a specific dependence on Russian supplies and have no viable alternative options.

Bulgaria has such a derogation until the end of 2024.

In 2022, Bulgaria also sold more than €1 billion worth of arms to Ukraine, although not directly but through intermediaries, a EURACTIV investigation showed last year.

The Balkan country is the main supplier of ammunition for the Soviet armament to the Ukrainian army, although the official authorities in Sofia still deny that such exports took place.

‘It’s logical’

“It’s logical that Bulgaria exports more fuels to Ukraine and this will continue this year as well,” Martin Vladimirov, director of the Energy and Climate programme at the influential Bulgarian think tank Center for the Study of Democracy (CID), told EURACTV Bulgaria.

Vladimirov, one of Bulgaria’s leading energy experts, also confirmed that fuels produced by Lukoil or by other importers of Russian fuels, such as the Bulgarian company Insta Oil, which directly imports fuels from Russia, are being exported to Ukraine.

“These are not importers of crude oil but of finished products, which are then exported through Romania, and according to my calculations, approximately 32,000 barrels of such fuels reach Ukraine per day. It is about gas oil, which is used for heavy machinery and agricultural machinery,” said Vladimirov.

He disagreed with recent stories published by Die Welt and Politico, where it was claimed that Bulgaria provided 40% of the fuel for the Ukrainian army, saying this percentage is greatly exaggerated.

Former Finance Minister Assen Vassilev told Die Welt that Bulgaria has become one of the largest exporters of diesel fuel to Ukraine and at times covered as much as 40% of its needs. Statistics show, however, that the main export from Bulgaria is gas oil.

“It is important to emphasise that all products exported to Ukraine are either fuels directly produced in Russia or produced in Lukoil Neftohim,” said Vladimirov, who expects this to continue this year as well.

“This will continue because the European Commission gave in December an explicit derogation for Bulgaria to be able to export products produced from Russian oil to Ukraine in the amount of the average values of the last five years,” Vladimirov said.

Editor's note: Remember when in the first half of 2022 Russia was bombing fuel depots? Well a lot of that fuel (40% by one disputed account) was Russian, imported via Bulgaria and refined in a Lukoil refinery in Bulgaria.


Source: Euractiv

In 2022, Ukraine bought a huge amount of fuels from Bulgaria made from Russian oil, according to data by the Bulgarian National Statistical Institute, provided exclusively to EURACTIV Bulgaria.

From January to November 2022, Bulgaria exported €700 million worth of fuels to Ukraine, and if the trend continues in December, the total value for the year will exceed €825 million. Compared to the period before the war, this is a 1,000-fold increase, as Bulgaria’s 2021 fuel exports to Ukraine totalled only €750,000.

The current scale of Bulgarian oil exports to Ukraine is so large that it corresponds to about 1% of the size of the entire Bulgarian economy.

The main fuel export from Bulgaria to Ukraine is gas oil (also known as red diesel), which makes up more than 90% of deliveries.

Gasoline supplies have also increased rapidly over the past six months, which is explained by Russian attacks on Ukrainian critical infrastructure. Diesel fuel is used in heavy industry to power machinery, generators, and off-road vehicles [such as tanks], as well as in agriculture and marine shipping.

The producer of gas oil in Bulgaria is the country’s only refinery, located in the port city of Burgas, owned by the Russian oil company Lukoil, which still operates mainly with Russian oil imported by tankers via the Black Sea, thanks to a derogation from EU sanctions.

The refinery in Burgas can afford to export fuel at significantly lower prices because it works with its own raw material. Last year, because of Western sanctions, Russian oil prices on world markets were on average $20-30 per barrel lower than stock market prices.

Bulgarian statistics show that Ukraine is now the Balkan country’s third-largest trading partner thanks to the export of fuels, having replaced the USA. In 2021, Ukraine ranked eighth among the countries outside the ЕU as a destination for Bulgarian exports.

Fuel exports from Bulgaria to Ukraine peaked in November 2022, when €130 million worth of petroleum products were exported.

The avalanche of oil exports то Ukraine began in May, when €40 million worth of products were exported, and reached €105 million in June. From June until the end of the year, levels were consistently high.

The period of the highest fuel sales to Ukraine coincides with the administration of the caretaker government of President Rumen Radev, who is accused by his opponents of being pro-Russian.

Radev is a staunch opponent of sending Bulgarian weapons to Ukraine but although divided, the parliament did not listen to him and a majority decided to send weapons at the end of last year.

Bulgaria protects its business

On 13 January, the Bulgarian parliament passed a law that allows fuels produced from Russian oil to be exported only to Ukraine. However, there is a loophole in the law that allows trade with other countries outside the EU for the fuels produced by Lukoil in Bulgaria, for which there is no market in Bulgaria.

This raises the question of the possible re-export of fuels from Russian oil to the EU, but only after they have been sold by Bulgaria to a country outside the EU.

If the oil originates from another country, for example, Kazakhstan, but has passed through Russia in transit, the new Bulgarian law says it can be imported into Bulgaria and the products can be sold on the European market.

At the end of last year, Lukoil announced its intention to make Bulgaria its main base in the EU. The Russian company promised to pay hundreds of millions of euros in taxes in Bulgaria if it is allowed to export its oil production in the country. Lukoil’s refinery in the Bulgarian city of Burgas is the largest in the Balkans.

A temporary derogation under the EU’s sixth sanctions package against Russia was foreseen for imports of crude oil by pipeline into those EU member states that, because of their geographic situation, suffer from a specific dependence on Russian supplies and have no viable alternative options.

Bulgaria has such a derogation until the end of 2024.

In 2022, Bulgaria also sold more than €1 billion worth of arms to Ukraine, although not directly but through intermediaries, a EURACTIV investigation showed last year.

The Balkan country is the main supplier of ammunition for the Soviet armament to the Ukrainian army, although the official authorities in Sofia still deny that such exports took place.

‘It’s logical’

“It’s logical that Bulgaria exports more fuels to Ukraine and this will continue this year as well,” Martin Vladimirov, director of the Energy and Climate programme at the influential Bulgarian think tank Center for the Study of Democracy (CID), told EURACTV Bulgaria.

Vladimirov, one of Bulgaria’s leading energy experts, also confirmed that fuels produced by Lukoil or by other importers of Russian fuels, such as the Bulgarian company Insta Oil, which directly imports fuels from Russia, are being exported to Ukraine.

“These are not importers of crude oil but of finished products, which are then exported through Romania, and according to my calculations, approximately 32,000 barrels of such fuels reach Ukraine per day. It is about gas oil, which is used for heavy machinery and agricultural machinery,” said Vladimirov.

He disagreed with recent stories published by Die Welt and Politico, where it was claimed that Bulgaria provided 40% of the fuel for the Ukrainian army, saying this percentage is greatly exaggerated.

Former Finance Minister Assen Vassilev told Die Welt that Bulgaria has become one of the largest exporters of diesel fuel to Ukraine and at times covered as much as 40% of its needs. Statistics show, however, that the main export from Bulgaria is gas oil.

“It is important to emphasise that all products exported to Ukraine are either fuels directly produced in Russia or produced in Lukoil Neftohim,” said Vladimirov, who expects this to continue this year as well.

“This will continue because the European Commission gave in December an explicit derogation for Bulgaria to be able to export products produced from Russian oil to Ukraine in the amount of the average values of the last five years,” Vladimirov said.

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