Labour overtake FF to become the second biggest political-party in the State?

national | worker & community struggles and protests | news report Friday February 13, 2009 17:02 by Worker

The Labour party has overtaken Fianna Fáil in the recent TNS/MRBI poll. The first time in the history of the state. A historic moment for those interested in the wider labour movement (as opposed to the revolutionary movement olr the labour party). I am not too familiar with the methodology behind this poll but I assume it is a fair and honest reflection of the electorate at the present moment. The TNS/MRBI poll predicted the outcome of the last election with relative precision.

Fianna Fáil’s satisfaction rating has plummeted to 14 percent. 62 per cent want a change of government. The support for the parties is as follows: Fianna Fáil, 22 per cent (down 5 points); Fine Gael, 32 per cent (down 2 points); Labour, 24 per cent (up 10 points); Sinn Féin, 9 per cent (up 1 point); Green Party, 4 per cent (no change); and Independents/others, 9 per cent (down 4 points). The message is simple: the electorate want Fianna Fáil out of office.

The Labour Movement

This is not at all surprising. The present government are undoubtedly responsible for a large part of our current economic woes. The government facilitated the crisis through domestic policy decisions over the past nine years. I sense that the electorate would be more forgiving of the government if they were a) humble enough to admit responsibility and b) responded with fair and equitable policies to manage the public finances. They have done neither and the electorate will vote with their feet in the local and European elections in June.

What is more interesting about the poll however, is that Fianna Fáil voters are shifting their preference to the Labour party.

It is not as if the Labour party are well organised at a local level. This lack of grassroots organisation (and the primary strength of Fianna Fáil, and Sinn Féin) is the Labour party’s primary fault. Of course, there are many well organised individuals in labour going forward for the local elections but en-masse it is a weakness. This may prove to be a thorn in their electoral ambitions come the general election. But, if Eamon Gilmore continues to perform in the public sphere as he has done over the past four months, then, he may carry the Labour to its biggest electoral victory in the history of the party. Perhaps the electorate are looking for new policies and new ideas that FF and FG cannot provide. The electorate know that replacing one centre-right party with another centre-right party will produce no substantial difference in public policy.

Fine Gael have dropped two percentage points and no doubt there will be calls within the party to replace Enda Kenny with Richard Bruton. If Labour lose support with Richard Bruton as leader then it will be obvious that the electorate are supporting parties according to their leaders. This would be disappointing as it would highlight that ‘leadership’ rather than progressive policy change is what will determine the next government. Leadership may instill confidence in day to day economic activity but it is no replacement for insightful, innovative and progressive public policy that is governed by an inclusive approach to decision making.

The power of ‘leadership’ is something that ‘post-modern citizens’ have yet to relinquish despite the abohorrence of 'leadership' amongst the libertarian-left. It is obviously more important to the electorate during a ‘crisis’. However, this emphasis upon strong leadership in recessionary times has brought catastrophe throughout history. It should be viewed with a critical eye. Strong leadership does not neccessarily equate to good decisions or good governance. Sean Fitzpatrick may have been a charismatic leader in Anglo-Irish but he obviously had no capacity for honest and diligent decision making. Corporate governance at its worst. Obamania may have reignited the importance of strong leadership amongst the electorate. A kind of ‘why cant we have someone like him’ mentality. Either way, I sense strong leadership will prove to be a decisive factor in any election during this economic crisis, which could persist for many years to come.

The current economic crisis could potentially produce a new political topography in Ireland. Six months ago it would have sounded pretty naive to argue that Labour could become the leading political party in government. Many indymedia users may not like electoral politics but it is nothing short of patronising to dismiss the primary means by which the working class express their political preferences in this country. The possibility of a social-democratic led government is not all that unrealistic anymore. It is hardly radical in a comparative perspective but it would be for Ireland (which shows how conservative this little island is)

If the Greens pulled out of government and an lection was held in the next few months Labour could potentially create a government with Sinn Féin, the Greens, Socialist Party and a selection of Independents. This would offer the electorate a new choice outside the centre-right versus centre-right option. Pure speculation of course, but, only time will tell. But, in the current whirlwind of political economy nothing appears inevitable anymore.