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The Saker
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Why climate models underestimate Arctic sea ice retreat?

category international | environment | other press author Sunday October 09, 2011 18:23author by P. Rampal - CNRS Report this post to the editors

The discussion continues as to why climate modelling may underestimate Arctic sea ice loss.

In recent decades, Arctic sea ice has suffered a dramatic decline that exceeds climate model predictions. The unexpected rate of ice shrinkage has now been explained by researchers at CNRS, Université Joseph Fourier and Massachusetts Institute of Technology. They argue that climate models underestimate the rate of ice thinning, which is actually about four times faster than calculations. This model bias is due to the poor representation of the sea ice southward drift out of the Arctic basin through the Fram Strait. When this mechanism was taken into account to correct the discrepancy between simulations and observations, results from the new model suggested that there will be no Arctic sea ice in summer by the end of the century. This work was published in the Journal of Geophysical Research on 29 September 2011.

The Arctic has been losing about 10% of its permanent ice layer every ten years since 1980. Melting of Arctic sea ice has also reached record heights: in mid-September 2007, at the point when sea ice reaches its annual minimum extent, perennial ice covered an area of 4.14 million km²(1). This record low level was nearly reached again in September 2011 (4.34 million km2). Climate simulations conducted for the IPCC(2) simulate the decline in Arctic sea ice resulting from global warming. They predict that summer ice will disappear altogether at the end of this century. However, when compared with 30 years of detailed satellite observations, these models appear optimistic. Arctic sea ice has thinned on average four times faster over the period 1979-2008 than in the climate simulations. True observations are therefore not correctly reproduced by these climate models, which were mainly calibrated using global variables, such as world average rather than “regional” temperature.

Related Link: http://www.physorg.com/news/2011-10-climate-underestimate-arctic-sea-ice.html

 #   Title   Author   Date 
   Arctic sea ice continues decline, hits 2nd-lowest level     JPL/NASA    Sun Oct 09, 2011 18:30 
   Geologic clocks are slow and relentless.     Slow Geological Timer.    Sun Oct 09, 2011 19:16 
   More Climate Hoax Exaggerations     Billy Bong    Wed Oct 12, 2011 18:17 
   Ships Passed through     Lord Franklin    Wed Oct 12, 2011 21:58 
   Hyperbollix     Real scientist    Wed Oct 12, 2011 23:45 
   Temperature Graph     Real scientist    Wed Oct 12, 2011 23:55 
   Ships Passed through?!!     Real Scientist    Thu Oct 13, 2011 00:06 
   "Real Scientist"     Lord Franklin    Thu Oct 13, 2011 12:48 
   you really don't get it do you     Real scientist    Thu Oct 13, 2011 13:24 
 10   "Real Scientist"     Lord Franklin    Thu Oct 13, 2011 13:30 
 11   "Lord" Franklin     Real scientist    Thu Oct 13, 2011 13:43 
 12   Response     LF    Thu Oct 13, 2011 13:55 
 13   "Lord" Franklin     Real Scientist    Thu Oct 13, 2011 14:07 
 14   Whoops     Real Scientist    Thu Oct 13, 2011 14:11 
 15   Global Warming and Climate Change     pat c    Thu Oct 13, 2011 14:21 
 16   '..in a scientific manner..', RS?     opus diablos    Thu Oct 13, 2011 15:37 
 17   why bother addressing that to me anyway     Real Scientist    Thu Oct 13, 2011 15:49 
 18   'Model' underestimates extent of Arctic ice Growth     Al Blood    Thu Oct 13, 2011 21:32 
 19   behave or be hidden ok?     wageslave    Fri Oct 14, 2011 08:10 
 20   '..merely a trolling attempt..'??     opus diablos    Fri Oct 14, 2011 12:52 
 21   this story about the Models     Real Scientists    Fri Oct 14, 2011 12:54 
 22   Coal-burning obscuring Global Warming-and the truth.     Rational Ecologist.    Fri Oct 14, 2011 14:03 
 23   some of it is pretty easy to predict though..     Nostradamus    Fri Oct 14, 2011 16:43 
 24   Vinnie Joines     Soot not CO2    Sat Oct 15, 2011 00:01 
 25   Your statement is nonsense RE     Real Scientist    Sat Oct 15, 2011 00:56 
 26   The AGW side are just attempting to "Save the [Flawed] Theory" and ignore the Real World     RS    Sat Oct 15, 2011 01:14 
 27   A clear example of the uselessness of the Climate Modelers "predictions"     RS    Sat Oct 15, 2011 01:28 
 28   We can't model it so fuck it, lets just party on then....what do you think RS?     Serf    Sat Oct 15, 2011 11:08 
 29   The Theory is wrong     RS    Sat Oct 15, 2011 12:00 
 30   RE: your selective use of quotation, Serf     RS    Sat Oct 15, 2011 12:24 
 31   Because I want to know whether I can trust you or not.     Serf    Sat Oct 15, 2011 14:16 
 32   What you want is immaterial     RS    Sat Oct 15, 2011 14:42 
 33   I think, serf..     opus diablos    Sat Oct 15, 2011 15:12 
 34   still off topic Opie     RS    Sat Oct 15, 2011 15:24 
 35   ta 4 d compliment, RS     opus diablos    Sat Oct 15, 2011 15:32 
 36   sure     Real Scientist    Sat Oct 15, 2011 17:01 
 37   might I suggest     opus diablos    Sat Oct 15, 2011 17:55 
 38   clearly a corporate shill     Real Lyingtwit    Sat Oct 15, 2011 18:17 
 39   RE: "might I suggest . . ."     RS    Sat Oct 15, 2011 18:36 
 40   @ Real Lyingtwit     Real Scientist    Sat Oct 15, 2011 18:54 
 41   you want some rebuttals from real scientists? here's a few.     Real Lyintwit    Sat Oct 15, 2011 19:39 
 42   I wish you would     @OD    Sat Oct 15, 2011 19:45 
 43   I don't 'need' anything, thanks anyway     Real Scientist    Sat Oct 15, 2011 19:57 
 44   I guess you aren't much interested in the opinions of "real scientists" either     Real Lyingtwit    Sat Oct 15, 2011 20:10 
 45   When you finally get round to discussing the actual science     RS    Sat Oct 15, 2011 20:14 
 46   @Real Lyingtwit     Real Scientist    Sat Oct 15, 2011 20:17 
 47   RS wouldn't last two minutes there     Serf    Sat Oct 15, 2011 20:23 
 48   Back to the Science - Temperature Trends     Real Scientist    Sat Oct 15, 2011 20:27 
 49   RE: RC     Real Scientist    Sat Oct 15, 2011 20:33 
 50   what does my ability to cut and paste add to the argument?     Real Lyingtwit    Sat Oct 15, 2011 20:35 
 51   so much for not smearing people without evidence     Serf    Sat Oct 15, 2011 20:39 
 52   ?     Real Scientist    Sat Oct 15, 2011 20:46 
 53   @ Real Lyingtwit     Real Scientist    Sat Oct 15, 2011 20:53 
 54   learn to read RS!     Real Lyingtwit    Sat Oct 15, 2011 21:07 
 55   When you finally get round to discussing the actual science     RS    Sat Oct 15, 2011 21:17 
 56   Back to the Science     Real Scientist    Sat Oct 15, 2011 21:30 
 57   The Models fail again     Real Scientist    Sat Oct 15, 2011 21:35 
 58   Models again shown to be wrong - "Unknown processes account for 50% of warming" - possibly more     Real Scientist    Sat Oct 15, 2011 22:02 
 59   @ Real Lyingtwit     Real Scientist    Sun Oct 16, 2011 08:21 
 60   Proof that RS is untrustworthy. Even The author himself thinks this paper says the opposite!     Real Lyingtwit    Sun Oct 16, 2011 08:28 
 61   Now the true face of real scientist is revealed. The emperor has no clothes     Serf    Sun Oct 16, 2011 09:20 
 62   To Nostradamus.     Rational Ecologist.    Mon Oct 17, 2011 09:54 
 63   back@@OD     opus diablos    Mon Oct 17, 2011 12:57 
 64   tap tap.......     Serf    Tue Oct 18, 2011 14:18 


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