New Poll shows Lisbon Referendum could be defeated- NO Vote shows 17% increase

international | rights, freedoms and repression | news report

Thursday June 05, 2008 22:47

by Lertoir

YES -30; NO -35 ; Don't Know- 35

A new Irish Times poll to be published in the paper in the morning, shows the Yes side at 30%, down five percentage points since their last poll three weeks ago, while the 'No' side is standing at 35%, up by an astounding 17%.

Those who responded with 'Don't Know' are down by 12 points to 35%

a satirical Lisbon poster

While the detail of the poll has not yet been published, it seems likely that in the last week many people who formerly had not decided how they would vote have now plumped for the safe option of voting against the Lisbon Treaty. A No vote means all existing EU institutions stay as they are now, while a Yes vote to pass the treaty would result in sweeping and drastic changes to the European Union.

It is not clear how the mainstream political parties - Labour, Fianna Fáil, and Fine Gael (weareallthesame.ie) will respond to the news that a sizable amount of their voters are intending to side with Sinn Fein and other left wing parties that oppose changes to Ireland's constitution proposed by the treaty.

While the poll was taken just after the farmers union the IFA (see we.do.what.were.told.ie) decided to support the treaty, the uncertain message from the country's largest union SIPTU ( see cantdecide.com) and the former taoiseach's appearance at the tribunal (see iwonitonahorse.honest.eu) may have balanced out the effect.

Don't Knows still outnumber Yes voters and equal No voters, so with seven days to go, the treaty could still go either way - as the saying goes- a week is a long time in politics (see recycled.political.cliches.org).

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Comments (15 of 15)

Irish Times ansds RTE reporting this

by couch potato

Thu Jun 05, 2008 22:50

unlikely as it sounds this is actually true: http://www.ireland.com/newspaper/breaking/2008/0605/ind....html

http://www.rte.ie/news/2008/0605/eulisbon.html

Final push needed

by Rational Ecologist

Fri Jun 06, 2008 10:11

This is a very heartening poll, however, that is all it is! There is no room for complacency and all those intending to vote NO need to do so and get their friends, family and so on to do the same. There has been a very good grassroots campaign on this so-called treaty. The Greens cannot sell everything on climate-change and should be totally ashamed of themselves. They know that they will be destroyed at the next election.
A NO vote would a reassertion of our democracy and welcomed in europe.
This will still come down to the wire and expect some hyper scaremongering over the next week.
I have to go now as I said I'd meet Bertie in Paddy Power's. He's a mighty tipster!

The likely outcome

by Self

Fri Jun 06, 2008 14:24

The other EU countries who want to integrate will just carry on with the important business as usual and pursue greater integration among themselves
Ireland will have agreed to be left outside the tent and it will get what it wants.
When France, Germany and the UK and some of the Eastern European countries form an exclusive club within Europe and leave us twisting in the wind, we wouldn't be in a position to do anything about it. They have bigger populations, bigger economies and bigger militaries.
We are just a powerless insignificant little island on the edge of Europe.

Calm down Self

by Pierre Vincente

Fri Jun 06, 2008 14:53

Dont be ridiculous Self, nothing will change , nobody can intergrate and leave us outside. We are part of the Union same as anyone else. We vote No , nothing changes. We get to keep our Commissioner and we get to keep our constitution. The French and the Dutch voted No and they are not " left behind" .

Only a fool buys a pig in a poke, we bring this thing in without knowing what the hell it is then there is no point crying when it turns out to be a Warthog. Vote No and stop panicking.

Lest we foget?

by Sean

Fri Jun 06, 2008 15:40

Could we forget these oh so well informed people?

The Referendum Omission

57% Vote NO on Joe Duffy Show

by Baazooka Joe

Fri Jun 06, 2008 16:03

Today - Friday 6th June on a text poll taken on the Joe Duffy Show on RTE Radio 1 a majority of 57% voted NO to Lisbon. The poll was taken without warning over 12 minutes and 12,000 people voted.

57% - NO
43% - Yes

psychological warfare as usual.

by Jimbob

Pierre Vincente, there's no point telling "Self" to calm down. He's probably very calm... panic is what he's trying to inflict on OTHERS.

The main parties and YES said, say almost nothing but the vagues of things about the benefits of this treaty, and then they make unprovable and improbable claims about the 'disasterous backlash' of a NO vote.

They rely on the layers of propoganda they've been serving up for a long time in this country, for example trying to implant and repeat the idea that

- We have no power, we are weak.
- We should be eternally grateful and unquestioning.
- We're a small island that only did well because the EU is a philantropic entity.
- The EU would kick us out or make us pay back all those farm and road subsidies.
- all the foreign companies would leave. (same argument used about Shannon and US military)
- all the other EU citizens want the treaty and we'd be the bold stubborn kids who ruin the party.
- there is no plan B. and no alternative is possible, or was ever suggested by anybody.

while it's closer to the truth that :
-We have more power than we think.
-The EU got a good deal from Ireland, and many European companies make a LOT of money here.
-the EU would NEVER kick out a country or allow them to leave the EU as long as European Business can still make a buck there.
-The result of this referendum won't cause a single multinational company to either open up or close down an office or factory in Ireland.
They think about (a) our LOW rate of corporate tax, (b) we speak English and are a cheap gateway to the EU market for Non-EU companies.
if our tax rate increases, or they find they can outsource cheaply to China or someplace else without losing too many customers, THEN companies would leave Ireland whether we pass the treaty or not.
-Of course there's a plan B, and a plan C. They said there was no Plan B to the EU Constitution, and yet after the Dutch and French rejected it, Hey Presto... they came up with a rehash... the Lisbon Treaty.
If we reject this treaty they'll try again with another way of moving their project forward.

We have to counter the propoganda and get people to think about the treaty rather than react.
Although, the ones with a calm head and common sense already know something Vincent pointed out, it's not wise to buy a pig in a poke.
Hopefully the No lead in the polls will be reflected in the voting.
(Thankfully it's not electronic voting!)

Great satirical posters.

Fri Jun 06, 2008 16:09

love the two posters lampoonign the Labour party (some of whose councillors have publically called for a No vote)
and the slanted Referendum Commission. I hope these posters are not only here. Are they e-mailed around to people, and also in paper form? Would love to see them.

copyleft

by cut n paste

Fri Jun 06, 2008 16:18

Download them and email them then- everything on indymedia is copyleft

here's an interesting statistic....

by stats

Fri Jun 06, 2008 18:02

google trends:

http://www.google.com/trends?q=lisbon+no%2Clisbon+yes&c...ort=0

Looks like there are more internet savvy voters interested in no vote sites

Say NO to the Lisbon treaty

by Andrew Petersen

Sat Jun 07, 2008 09:29

The Irish republic is the only out of 27 EU member states where the Lisbon treaty, the for-mer EU treaty, that was rejected by the French and Dutch in 2005, is to be confronted with a referendum. Because of this, the Irish people have an historic responsibility with regard to influence on the future.
The Irish republic is the only out of 27 EU member states where the Lisbon treaty, the for-mer EU treaty, that was rejected by the French and Dutch in 2005, is to be confronted with a referendum. Because of this, the Irish people have an historic responsibility with regard to influence on the future.

There is no doubt that the Lisbon-treaty is a benefit for the big EU leadership. Maybe that’s why the French government has changed the French constitution so the parliament can ap-prove the treaty. It should make any one very suspicious.

The Lisbon-treaty means more EU control and less national democracy and decision mak-ing: centralisation, instead of national government. Brussels will se the order of the day. Also with regard to military and security politics. The EU wants to compete with the USA. Can YOU imagine two hegemonic superpowers? No, that could mean World War Three be-cause Russia and china becomes afraid!

If the world is to be more peaceful, a stronger UN, and the countries of the world should solve the problems together, vote NO to the Lisbon treaty.

Do it for the present generations, the climate, nature, world peace, democracy, and the gen-erations to come. If they are to have a god life, the problems must be solved by the UN, not the USA and the EU. That means more trouble.

And who controls the European politics?

by Hans Ceustermans

Mon Jun 09, 2008 11:18

Who controls the media, controls emotions like joy and happiness, but also fear and anxiety.
The current anti-gyspy emotions in Italy were carefully prepared already since one year by an organised media campaign.
Both the election results in Rome and Londen were based on irrational fear...
Who or better WHAT controls the European media?

In the media I read that Berlusconi's company mediaset has taken over the dutch media concern of Endemol.
Endemol was already owner of the Spanish telefonica.
Do we have to worry in Europe?
The victory of Berlusconi has nothing to do with the 'exotic' nature of Italians, or with political left or right but everything with mediaconcentrations that can fall in the wrong hands.

I follow the Italian political situation since 16 years and have seen how far it can come.
This is a slow poison that penetrates...
Gradually headlines start to change, the society gets divided and polarised, critical journalists get fewer and fewer.
In Rome but also in Londen the election victory was based on irrational fear.
There is no political answer to this kind of manipulation.
This can happen in any European country...

If you read the following article which are all statements of Mr Berlusconi himself one week before the elections(I was in Italy), you'll get an idea of who or better WHAT won and why...
Read and shiver..
http://www.indymedia.org/en/2008/04/904792.shtml

Do we want to follow in Europe the roadmap of Berlusconi and Putin?
Isn't it urgently time to act?
Maybe it's not yet too late...

*********************************************************************************************************
More info and references

Silvio Berlusconi: A threath for European democracy?
http://www.wikio.com/article/54654672

Help Europe: Silvio Berlusconi is taking over the European media
http://www.wikio.com/article/56367203

Italian crystal nights:first the gypsies,what's next... is this Europe 1938?
http://www.wikio.com/article/57683499

Silvio Berlusconi and the 'democratic' 2008 election campaign
http://www.wikio.com/article/57159079

An elected senator of Berlusconi's party 'people of freedom'

Is FG poster based on a margarine advertsement?

Mon Jun 09, 2008 12:34

I think so!

Full of Omega 3 and monosodium glutamate

FG ad in ILAC Centre

by TMcG

Mon Jun 09, 2008 18:18

One of the FG margarine style ads in the ILAC centre in Dublin has an interactive element- you can press buttons for YES and NO.

They missed the opportunity of making the NO button give out an electric shock, but the figures show that even if they had, people would probably still press it...

Save our freedom

by James Connolly

Wed Jun 11, 2008 11:26

good women and men of ireland.
In god's name vote NO to this anti-democratic EU treaty.
Don't be fooled. Your No vote is not against EU at all,
it is against a european military superstate with too little
democratic instruments to be controlled by the people.

Please also think about your responsibility for anyone
of the 27 other nations which dont have the opportunity
to vote about their future.

I write this from germany, but we are not the only nation
that has been fooled into accepting the lisbon treaty
without voting.

Please people of ireland, do the right thing tomorrow.
Vote NO

God bless you ..

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New Poll shows Lisbon Referendum could be defeated- NO Vote shows 17% increase

Comments (15 of 15)