Public Opinion and Corrib Gas
mayo |
environment |
opinion/analysis 
Monday October 29, 2007 01:03
by JM
Rossport
How poll questions are framed, and what does it all mean?
The latest Irish Times online Head2Head poll concerned itself with the Corrib gas controversy in North Mayo, and asked the following question:
Is Shell's Corrib Gas project good for the local community?
The result came in as a resounding NO, with 84% believing the project as proposed is bad for the local community, with less than 1 in 6 agreeing it was good for the area.
To most people from the area (including those promoting the project) the result should not come as a great surprise. Shell's involvement in the Erris region has caused nothing but strife and conflict for the last few years, and their continued stance on the proposed Bellanaboy refinery is not getting us any nearer to a solution.
Local resistance has grown dramatically since the jailing of the Rossport Five (when the issue got national and international attention) and with protests at Bellanaboy every working day since July 2005 there is no sign of the elusive concept of "community consent" materialising anytime soon.
However, that is exactly what Shell are claiming. The myth of an adoring populace dogged by a few rag-tag diehards is exactly that... a myth. Shell's fantasy of popular support for their chosen design concept is as far removed from reality as you can get, and the Times' poll is only the most recent confirmation of this.
There is a well-known phrase about "lies, damn lies, and statistics" and the arguments surrounding this project are a perfect example of statistical manipulation and outright lies.
Comments (19 of 19)
Jump To Comment: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19These are the results of five scientifically conducted polls on the Corrib saga. Many questions were asked in different ways, but the ones shown here all relate to the specific design concept... an inland refinery and high pressure onshore pipeline. This is the fundamental issue of the controversy; where should the gas be processed?
The results are fairly consistent, with a two-thirds to three-quarters majority opposed to the Bellanaboy option.
When it comes to interpreting the results in more depth, it is clear that the vast majority of respondents support development of the Corrib field in principle, and this is spun by Shell as support for Bellanaboy. Contradicting this, however, is Shell's assertion that those opposed to a refinery at Bellanaboy are in fact opposed to all forms of "progress".
The fact is, Shell To Sea is a pro-development stance, but one that demands sustainability for health, safety and the environment to take precedence over private financial gain for unaccountable corporations.
May 2006 - Irish Times
September 2006 - Nuacht TG4
October 2006 - Mayo Advertiser
November 2006 - RTE Primetime
March 2007 - Western People
Shell commissioned their own poll that was made public (in part) in October 2006, and among the questions was one about Bellanaboy:
"If the gas cannot be processed out at sea, which one of the following options would you prefer?
That the gas be brought to the terminal in Bellanaboy via a pipeline
Or
Do nothing, leave the Corrib Gas Field as it is."
Because of the pro-development stance already demonstrated, it was quite likely that the response would be grudgingly positive, and Shell got the answer they needed. 65% for, 35% against.
The question was akin to asking the following:
"If the only thing availble to eat is cabbage, even if you hate the stuff, which would you prefer?
Eat cabbage for breakfast, dinner and tea
Or
Starve to death."
The fact that the question was extremely narrow in the way people could respond gave a pre-determined outcome. They also had the double safety net of ignoring people who responded negatively (as reported in Village magazine at the time) and not having to make the results known at all if they were unfavourable.
This would all be hilarious if the consequences were not so serious. The lie of community support for the experimental Corrib gas project has led to a prolonged dispute becoming ever more dangerous, with Shell and their partners allowing proper debate and reasoned argument to be replaced with physical abuse and intimidation of a community. Governement mediator Peter Cassells has a lot to answer for.
Shell's own poll - October 2006
poll trends
Bellanaboy - for and against
I wonder If the publications of the pie charts (above) by JM is an indication that the S2S group are attempting to condition their supporters for a softening of their demands.
As JM has pointed out in every poll the vast majority of respondents were in favor of the gas been brought ashore, and the Millward Brown IMS poll shows a 2/3 majority favoring it been processed at bellanaboy in favor of leaving the gas where it is for now.
I could be cynical and point out that the poll at http://scripts.ireland.com/polls/head2head/index.cfm?fu...=8030 would be "very" simple to manipulate, for example if one was to vote 1000 times it would suggest that 1000 people voted in a particular way.
But in fact it was actually only one determined person.
JM and the rest of us know that the value of this find to a company like shell is just small change, and the Irish economy needs this gas more than shell needs the profit they will make from the "deal".
Shell could quite easily cap this find and sit on it for years or even decades and it wouldn't dent their global profits, in fact with the predicted inflation in energy prices it would likely make good business sense to do just that.
It is the Irish state that most needs a secure energy supply, and yes this project most likely will set a precedence on how further finds will be developed in inhospitable regions of the world.
But the crux of this whole saga is, the Irish people needs this gas more than shell needs the profit. and that simple fact (which shell is well aware of) means shell are holding all the aces.
'for example if one was to vote 1000 times'
Multiple on-line voting is prevented by the use of cookies and reading of IP addresses.
The people in the IT didn't come down in the last shower.
"Multiple on-line voting is prevented by the use of cookies and reading of IP addresses.
The people in the IT didn't come down in the last shower."
I should have expected such a Gullible response.
you can download "cookie crumble" from http://www.freedownloadscenter.com/Reviews/r3114.html "This tool proves to be very useful particularly when a website uses tracking cookies to monitor your online activities.
Or you can do it manually which is almost as easy.
Cookies are very easily fooled with your browser .........Steps to manually delete cookie files for Windows Internet Explorer http://support.microsoft.com/kb/278835 with Vista it is even easier takes approx 2 seconds go to,, tools/ delete browsing history/delete all... presto the IT thinks you haven't voted before?
Similarly IP identification is useful to recognize a computer (this is how computers locations are identified) but again very easily the online poll software can be fooled. simply use Dial up with its dynamic IP (different IP every time you connect) or use a proxy/mirror.
or simpler still download a software utility such as http://www.hidemyip.net/ "Hiding your IP is as easy as clicking the "Hide IP" button. Change your IP address automatically every few minutes"
So while such polls are entertaining their scientific value are worthless.
Red stating "The people in the IT didn't come down in the last shower" sounds a bit gullible in light of those simple truths.
And if that dosent convince you you can see..........
http://www.abc.net.au/mediawatch/transcripts/s886149.htm
CL is becoming funnier and funnier.
S/he's now suggesting a conspiracy is responsible for the crap results for Shell in opinion polls.
The simple truth is that if there were a massive majority that supported Shell, it would have been reflected in the poll. Afterall if Shell had a massive majority, this massive majority would have allowed CL's conspiracy theory to have fruitioned on a massive scale and it would have dwarfed the alleged conspiracy allegedly perpetrated by those who side with S2S. Despite the obvious flaws in the machinations of CL's theory itself, I doubt the average S2S supporter would bother. They are right afterall and they know they are right. Beside's if one reads the comments, one would rapidly grow sick of reading Shell's one argument (alleged that is) cloned into a vast array.
I have a habit of talking to strangers. I always do it. Very few people I've talked to agree with Shell and the most of the few I've talked to who were on Shell's side were acting under false information and switched sides when shown the truth. Then again maybe I clean out my cookies after every conversation and end up talking to the same person each time who has done the same thing.
Conspiracies - Gotta love em!! (specially when they're pushed on behalf of the bad guys - shows desperation).
When the trolls come out Shell is kicking ass (or asses)!!
CL knows a hell of a lot more about cookies than I do - and is it (when anonymous, no name, no gender, one is entitled to use 'it') seriously delusional enough to try to say that I voted 1000 times!! It then turns round on itself and says ALL polls are useless.
I grant its comments that Shell can cap the wells and sit on them - up to a point. While it would have been feasible up to 10 years ago it's not any longer. All oil companies are under pressure to renew their reserves and in that regard Shell has the poorest record of the big oil companies. This is serious for them as it affects investor confidence and big investors not governed by ethical considerations will just go for Exxon or BP. Furthermore, in Erris, Shell is under pressure to 'deliver' the conduit for many more pipelines which are stacking up to come into Ballinaboy (they think).
It, by its smug commentary that Shell can sit on OUR resources is strengthing OUR argument that if Burke/Bertie hadn't treasonably ceded the peoples rights to their own resources it would be the State, on behalf of the people, who would use these resources wisely to literally fuel the transition from fossil energy to 21st century alternatives.
Finally, trying to detect a 'softening' of S2S resolve now its 8th year and growing in success merely points to a serious softening of whatever passes for a brain in this ridiculous creature.
CL has been flushed out.
Given his record on Shell-related threads we can now safely assume that he has been multiple-voting on the IT Head to Head site.
In light of this it makes the overwhelming vote against Shell even more convincing.
Thanks CL!
remember this everyone? :)
Irish times freudian slip
I am honored that some of the "intellects" from S2S deemed it necessary to attempt discrediting my theory.
First Seán Ryan, "S/he's now suggesting a conspiracy is responsible for the crap results for Shell in opinion polls."
I never suggested that! I pointed out the fact that it is possible to "fix" an online poll to get a desired result.
and his assertion "obvious flaws in the machinations of CL's theory itself" ok Seán point out those flaws and I will gladly concede I was wrong (I promise).
Now on to the "intellects" Maura "seriously delusional enough to try to say that I voted 1000 times!! It then turns round on itself and says ALL polls are useless." Where when did I say all polls are useless?
"While it would have been feasible up to 10 years ago it's not any longer" futures expert Maura?
"Shell is under pressure to 'deliver' the conduit for many more pipelines which are stacking up to come into Ballinaboy (they think)." Seán will love reading that (Conspiracies - Gotta love em!!)
"OUR argument that if Burke/Bertie hadn't treasonably ceded the peoples rights to their own resources it would be the State, on behalf of the people,"
You may be absolutely correct in that argument , but how will Shell refining at sea change that fact?
"Finally, trying to detect a 'softening' of S2S resolve now its 8th year and growing in success" How is that success measured, did S2S get a commitment from minister Ryan that he would tear up the deal with shell, or deny consent for a pipeline route?
Red, "CL has been flushed out." don't know what he means by that.
"Given his record on Shell-related threads ."
My record on Shell related treads are of stating facts.
"we can now safely assume that he has been multiple-voting on the IT Head to Head site"
I have just posted a piece pointing out the fact that online polls are unreliable, so why would I waste my time (I could have if I wanted) altering the results of something with no scientific credibility?
I'd be happy to point out some of the flaws.
1. I'm not a member of S2S, though I very much agree with and appreciate them. If CL considers me an intellectual then God love him/her, wait till s/he really encounters one.
2. If as you say, the IT does IP checking, then deleting cookies is a waste of time.
3. Just because you read some WINDOWS propaganda about deleting cookies and then say that following your instructions by telling Internet Explorerer to delete cookies does not mean that the cookies are deleted. This does not effect what you said in regard to the IT using tracking cookies, however it does put your WINDOWS 'expertise' in question. Try reading up on the CACHE and DAT files to see my point.
4. A very decent percentage of folks use broadband and for the most part, you are stuck with the IP number you're given. With regard to 56k modems, it would be unusual in Ireland for providers to give a different IP number everytime someone connected.
5. IP numbers are not used to identify an individual computer. They are used to identify a customer, many computers might use the same service. (This would introduce the opposite to what you are alleging - different computer users might be stopped from taking part in the poll as they use the same account.)
6. Proxies and mirror sites are quite easy to find and use, tis true. However most proxy servers and mirror sites are well known and are well known in the public domain. The IT could and probably does have a list of them. The proxies that are not public knowledge are rarer and if lots of posts used them, there would be much duplication of IP addresses.
7. Here's some of my 'intellectual' thinking that refutes what CL has said. When you read an IP number, you can tell where the poster is located. It's my guess that the vast majority of posts and votes came from Ireland. I say that this would be reflected by whatever IP checks the IT performed. Here's my point: I challenge CL to post a singular mirror site that gives an Irish IP or indeed a proxy provider that gives an Irish IP number, never mind a mirror site or a proxy provider that provides services that mimic Irish IP's from various counties.
All in all a piss poor conspiracy theory.
have a look at :
http://answers.google.com/answers/threadview?id=596139
Personally, I find just power cycling / resetting my router changes my IP
Well worth doing on a regular basis.
perhaps thats the method that frank fahey used on his computer to fake the high "yes" vote for his latest get richer quick road scheme on his oh-so-neutrally named website
http://www.isupportthebypass.com/
what a joke!
From post titled 'Gullible' in this thread I quote 'So while such polls are entertaining their scientific value are (sic) worthless'
Once more, an attempt is being made to deflect serious discussion on serious issues by talk of cookies etc etc
The great thing about Indy is that the likes of McDowell can't shoot it down as he did CPI. Therefore we owe it to readers to discuss topics rationally - if the It creature wants to slobber on it's quite entitled to but let's continue with reasoned comments interspersed with prattlings of It & Co.
actually I believe talk of IT is relevant
People may in their ignorance attribute more weight to such online polls than they merit and make ethical judgements based on them.
Personally it was not my intention to derail a serious discussion in any way, merely to help keep it its feet in reality regarding the value of online polls.
Maura&Seán should read what I actualy said before they post,
Seán "an intellectual " :-) :-)
maura "such polls "= online polls
sean ever hear of clear cache or Index.dat Suite http://www.freewarefiles.com/program_5_180_22549.html.
Nothing is foolproof!
Any attempted manipulation of the poll would have meant the result wouldn't have tallied with the comments. A quick glance confirms that the percentage of comments in support of Maura's argument was easily in excess of 84%. If there was manipulation of the voting, it was on the pro-Shell side.
Good point MacE.
Maybe somebody has the time to analyse the opinions. They are certainly overwhelmingly anti-refinery.
I noticed comments from Kathy Sinnott, Patricia McKenna and Harry Blaney (is this a FF first?) - all against the current location.
Tim Quinn in Belmullet and Frank Chambers in Newport want the gas refined offshore and oppose the Bellanaboy option. That's 2 out of the 12 FF councillors in Mayo. While they're not very vocal about it, at least they haven't done a U-turn like Michael "I'll go to jail with ye if I have to" Ring.
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