Petraeus has no chance of defeating Al-Qaeda in Iraq and no hope of making America safer

US forces in Iraq are providing Al-Qaeda with ideal terrain to train to overthrow Al-Saud

In his column in the Irish Times, the Washington Post's opinionator Charles Krauthammer has said that General Petraeus can defeat Al-Qaeda in Iraq. I disagree!

Far from defeating Al-Qaeda, the US occupation provides Islamist fighters with ideal terrain on which to recruit and train to overthrow Mr Bush’s friends in the house of Al-Saud, and does nothing to prevent Al-Qaeda cells elsewhere from planning attacks elsewhere.

Krauthammer’s comments bear no resemblance to the realities of fighting Al-Qaeda, and every resemblance to a propagandum formulated by the White House to justify a military strategy whose chances of success are next to nil. Krauthammer tells us nothing about Iraq, and everything about Washington.

Whte House staff are sure to go on vigorously propagating this implausible "We can defeat Al-Qaeda in Iraq" message in the media in coming months. My counter-analysis provides a copyright-free debunker for reuse as needs arise.

Charles Krauthammer displays boundless – nay, groundless! – optimism when he suggests that US General Petraeus can defeat Al-Qaeda in Iraq. ("Petraeus now likely to achieve defeat of al-Qaeda in Iraq", Irish Times, 17 September 2007 - See excerpt and link below.)

The fact that Al-Qaeda is operating in Iraq at all is a counterproduct of the US-led invasion and occupation.

The secularist Ba’ath Party absolutely excluded extremists pursuing Islamist ideologies, and so the only group pursuing an ultra-orthodox interpretation of Islam in Iraq up to March 2003 was Ansar al-Islam, based in Kurdistan, well beyond the reach of Baghdad’s forces.

The invasion itself created conditions under which Al-Qaeda could establish a foothold close to Baghdad, and recent events in Anbar show that the entire might of the occupation forces cannot prevent Al-Qaeda from staging spectacular strikes against its enemies:

In the course of this year, a tribal leader named Sheikh Abdul Sittar Bezea al-Rishawi led a campaign to drive Al-Qaeda out of Anbar.

During a brief stopover at a US Air Force base in Iraq on September 3, President Bush acknowledged Sittar’s achievements: “When you stand on the ground here in Anbar and hear from the people who live here, you can see what the future of Iraq can look like,” and he afterwards shook hands with Sittar.

General Petraeus repeated this upbeat message during testimony to Congress on the anniversary of 9/11 last week, describing Sittar’s achievement as a “model of what happens when local leaders and citizens start to defy al-Qa’eda …”

Two days later, Sittar was killed by a roadside bomb – apparently assassinated by Al-Qaeda.

So this is the US model for the future of Iraq? I beg your pardon!

Far from defeating Al-Qaeda, the US occupation provides Islamist fighters with ideal terrain on which to recruit and train to overthrow Mr Bush’s friends in the house of Al-Saud, and does nothing to prevent Al-Qaeda cells elsewhere from planning new bombings in other parts of the world.

Petraeus knows this. When he appeared before the Senate armed services committee last week, Republican Senator John Warner asked him about his strategy: "Does that make America safer?"

Petraeus replied: “Sir, I don't know, actually. …”

So: Krauthammer’s comments bear no resemblance to the realities of defeating Al-Qaeda in Iraq or anywhere else in the world, and every resemblance to a propagandum formulated by staff at the White House to justify a military strategy whose chances of success are next to nil.

As usual, Krauthammer tells us nothing about Iraq, and everything about Washington.

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Please feel free to use any or all of the analysis above in letters to the editors in response to any commentator who suggests that the occupation forces play a useful role in fighting Al-Qaeda.
Coilín.
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Here is the relevant excerpt from Krauthammer's column in the Irish Times, followed by links to the full article in the IT and Washington Post:

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Petraeus now likely to achieve defeat of al-Qaeda in Iraq
Charles Krauthammer
...
In the shorter term, however, there is a realistic chance of achieving a separate success that, within the context of Iraq, is of a second order but in the global context is of the highest order - the defeat of al-Qaeda in Iraq.

Having poisoned one country and been expelled from it (Afghanistan), al-Qaeda seized upon post-Saddam instability to establish itself in the very heart of the Arab Middle East - Sunni Iraq. Yet now, in front of all the world, Iraq's Sunnis are, to use the biblical phrase, vomiting out al-Qaeda. This is a defeat and humiliation in the extreme - an Arab Muslim population rejecting al-Qaeda so violently that it allies itself in battle with the infidel, the foreigner, the occupier.

Just carrying this battle to its successful conclusion - independent of its larger effect of helping stabilise Iraq - is justification enough for the surge. The turning of Sunni Iraq against al-Qaeda is a signal event in the war on terror.

Charles Krauthammer's e-mail address is letters@charleskrauthammer.com.

(c) 2007, The Washington Post Writers Group.
© 2007 The Irish Times

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See the full article in the Irish Times:
Petraeus now likely to achieve defeat of al-Qaeda in Iraq
http://www.ireland.com/newspaper/world/2007/0917/118907....html

And in the Washington Post:
A 'Realistic Chance' of Success
By Charles Krauthammer
Friday, September 14, 2007
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/20....html

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