Avian Flu Pandemic

international | eu | news report

Saturday October 08, 2005 11:43

by Kathy Sinnott

How is the EU preparing for this?

Kathy Sinnott, Member of the European Parlaiment, reports on discussions at EU level about precautions to be taken in the face of the apparently imminent avian flu pandemic.

As I am on the Health Working Group in the European Parliament, I have been able to watch the hysteria build around the proposed avian flu pandemic.

Flu can kill people with weak immune systems and people already fighting another disease like cancer. Flu can also be part of the immune development of others. As I child I remember my parents taking care of us as we got every flu that swept through the schools. As a mom, I have remained fluless and able to take care of my children as they succumb to the almost annual bouts.

Maybe the flu will come and maybe it won't. I don't know. What I do know is the whole biological process is very complex and it is being treated as a very simple equation.

Avian flu is in birds, and the prediction is that it will jump to pigs and then to humans and we will then die in our millions. We are authoritarily told that the only thing that can save us is stockpiling hundreds of millions of euros worth of antiviral drugs and pre-ordering hundreds of millions of euros worth of vaccines.

My problem is that I am not convinced that everything I am hearing is true.

Do viruses inevitably jump species? No, when they do it is because of unnatural contaminating conditions. Shouldn’t we think about spending some of the hundreds of millions on eradicating some of the animal husbandry practices, like the super-intensive, Asian chicken and pig farming, that not only create the conditions for a virus to jump species, but are cruel and produce low quality, chemically toxic meat?

Maybe we should also look closer at the certainty of bird viruses reaching humans. Whenever this is discussed BSE (mad cow disease) is cited. We have been told for a long time BSE went from scrapies in sheep to cow to man. But in the last month a well researched study has just been published that suggests that BSE is a human virus and has not come from other species, that it came from raw human bones that were included in the animal bone meal that was imported into the UK from India and Pakistan. as animal feed for several decades.

If these researchers are right, BSE was a human disease incubated by the British cattle that ate the human bone meal. It was then given back to the humans that ate the meat of cattle and who received medicines that were produced from them.

Also what about the inevitability of a pandemic? Well, maybe if the hundreds of millions of euro to be spent on mass medication campaigns if the flu comes (and wasted if the flu doesn’t) were spent on sanitation, nutrition, proper housing in the poor countries and on promoting better eating habits among Westerners, we would have less to fear from flu.

When the WHO uses vitamin A in areas of Africa in preparation for measles and other viral outbreaks they have consistently found they get a much better outcome when the disease hits the population in the area. Look at their data. Measles is very dangerous among undernourished children, yet after a program of vitamin A, the children have milder cases of measles, fewer side effects and the death rate is significantly lowered.

Vitamin A is important in the body's ability to fight viruses. Are our children getting enough vitamin A? No. Few children eat liver and organ meats anymore. The dairy products tend to be low in cream, a source of vitamin A. Many eat margarine instead of butter, How many children eat dark green, raw, leafy vegetables? The list does doesn't leave much besides carrots. And don't be fooled by the "fortified with Vitamin A" label. Usually the vitamin A is industrial palmitate which has a long shelf life and little value and can even make some children more deficient in usable vitamin A. Time to rethink Cod Liver Oil. Our grandmothers had the right idea.

Okay, so what about the estimate of millions of deaths? Well this is based on the 1918 flu pandemic which took more lives than World War I. Over 20 million died, but this was very different. It will take another column to explain why it is not relevant to predictions about avian flu.

In the last thirty years, some flu pandemics have killed thousands of people globally and some have killed hundreds. Every one of those deaths is one too many and this is why we have to take any flu seriously and also why we have to look at it accurately and not simplistically.

We have a European romance with mobility and travel. One of the greatest attractions of the EU is free movement of goods and services. If we are genuinely facing a serious flu pandemic and we genuinely care about saving lives, we have to think about suspending that romance for the duration. Remember our history. Half of Europe died in the Middle Ages because people moved around. In a village, a person would develop the black plague. Everyone would flee to the next village. Tragically the plague traversed Europe repeatedly, village by village.

In those days people didn’t know any better. They didn't know that even though they didn’t yet feel sick, they were carrying a virus with them to the next village, but we do know. When I mentioned this I was told that restrictions would loose the economy billions of euros. By spending the hundreds of millions of euro on medicines and vaccines we plan to keep business as usual during the pandemic.

Our decision makers honestly think we can stay mobile and minimise an epidemic at the same time. Small pox was eliminated in Africa not by vaccine, but by quarantine. As a common practise when someone developed smallpox in a village, the village closed its doors, no one came or went.

The other problem with medicine like vaccines and anti-virals as the complete answer instead of one element of the strategy is that the very people most vulnerable to flu are the weaker members of the community, the old, babies, sick and people with disabilities yet read the drug company insert. I did after my epileptic, disabled son got very sick from his flu jab ten years ago. In the physicians desk reference at the time, under influenza vaccines, it stated it was contraindicated for people with "unstable neurological conditions". Who has unstable neurological conditions? Many of the people most vulnerable to the flu.

A lot of research in the last decade has focused on the neurologically damaging effect of mercury / thermerisol in medications like the flu jab. If mercury is the culprit and the reason that flu jabs are contraindicated for many vulnerable people (and I say “if”) then the vulnerable need mercury/thermerisol-free jabs. Yet thermerisol is a preservative which enables stock piling and mass production. (The vaccines cannot be produced until the human form of the virus is known but the vaccine base can be stockpiled.)

When I mentioned all this at the health working group which considers itself the special think tank on avian flu, one elderly doctor made lots of notes but the Eurocrat co-chairing the meeting discounted it all saying “This is not a medical discussion, can we please discuss the pandemic politically.” Politically! Well then, let's just have a referendum and decide not to have a pandemic. Viruses are not respecters of politics. But it seems we are to discuss it politically and leave the drug companies to think about the medical issues and, dare I say it, the money to be made.

Anyway, the political discussion we had after that was the necessity to ensure that MEPs are among the first to get the flu jab so that we are preserved from the flu to make all the necessary political decisions. Further, it was proposed that we make those decisions in someway other than coming together in Strasbourg and Brussels because it would be unthinkable that we precious “decision makers” might all get sick together. Alas, what would Europe do?

With those decisions to be taken, the meeting came to a close.

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Comments (14 of 14)

BSE - Human to Human Transfer

by Miriam Cotton

Sat Oct 08, 2005 11:50

miriamcotton at eircom dot net

More information and other links to the background on this issue on this link:

http://www.newstarget.com/011683.html

Ever hear of Siberian Hamsters Kathy???

by A10

Sat Oct 08, 2005 14:35

Famous line between John Cleese and Andrew Sachs in Fawltey Towers,regarding Sachs chacter keeping a rat as a pet.
your description of how the black plauge was spread in Europe is most false.The black plauge is spread by fleas that travel on rats,not by person to person contact.Historacally proven the average medival european hardly if ever travelled outside his own village,or town.But the black rat does travel.And adding to the average medival unhygenic conditions of dayto day life.[Which we fortuneatly do not have anymore,] it is little wonder that it spread so rapidly,even to good old Ireland.
So to compare the plauge and the possibility of avian flu spreading ,and suggesting we lock ourselves away in our own countries is both perposterous,and scare mongering.

I wrote on flu

by iosaf

Sat Oct 08, 2005 15:08

article at link with links there to WHO and explanation of the different kinds of Flu and their history.
Renewed interest this week comes after an international team led by a spanish academic working in the US recreated the "spanish flu" in a lab and found evidence of avian transfer.

Russia has reported some cases of the "newest" type of Flu in the last year, but so far reports are not as scary as they might at first appear. Rumania has just reported some suspicious bird deaths, but for the moment avian flu is not going to kill us all...yet

The "plague" has not been eradicated, and many would do well to remember that the last outbreak in "our sphere of influence" was just after WW2 in Oran, Algeria (Albert Camus wrote a book about it)
But certainly rats can travel far, as the last commenter reminded us. Minor rodents boast many migratory species (think of the lemming) and after disasters it is not unusual to see waves of rats and mice making their escape. Best advice for the moment on Plague is :-
"avoid rats, don't pet or offer them affection, if your work means you have sustained contact with rats, wash your hands afterwards. Remember rat fleas bite and carry disease. if you work or live amongst rats, use a strong flea repellent available from any good pet supply store or pharmacy. If symptoms persist consult your doctor, paint a white cross on your door if living in a wholesome kathurlick neighbourhood and remember to inform the local head village man so he can make proper arrangements."

Best advice on bird flu is somewhat similar.
Avoid birds. If your housing situation means you sleep next to or above birds, consider applying for political asylum in another country. You must get into trouble with your local state to ensure political asylum. If you're living in China you might like to check out some unhealthy news sites on the internet. This will cost you about two to three weeks income. Make sure therefore you've informed the local village head man so he can properly grass you up. If you go on holidays to S.E.Asia avoid hotel cheap beds over cages of ducks or other fowl. Ask for other accomodation. Report the innkeeper to your embassy.
Do remember to eat garlic and take multi-vitamin tablets. Take particular care of older folk. Make sure they've paid all their contributions & are "au fait" with business like discussions down the local health centre.

Uhm where are you getting this science!!!!

by Philip Boylan

Sat Oct 08, 2005 15:42

Sorry Kathy, you may be involved with whatever in the european parliament, but you know didly-shit about viruses. They do vector-hop and frequently at that. It is called evolution. If you consider a virus as an entity which has only one goal, reproduce. Thats all viruses do. They infect cells and either turn the cells into produces of its own DNA, the non-lytic pathway, or they hijack the cells processes and produce more and more copies of themselves until the cell bursts, the lytic pathway. As such, the virus is a pathogen and is governed by some basic desries of all pathogens.....keep the host alive and thus maintain your own ability to reproduce. If the virus is killing off birds, then it may evolve into a vector hopper and thus attempt to infect a larger or smaller organism that can easily support its needs while not destroying itself. Animal husbandry, intense farming etc, has very little effect on the flu virus. The reason the virus is so dangerous is because it mutates consistantly. As soon as you get a vaccine for the little bugger it mutates and your vaccine is no longer as effective.

The flu is more than dangerous to healthy people as well. This new strain that is worrying H5N1, can induce the body to begin a massive immune system shock. What happens here is that once the virus is detected by your B-cells inside your lungs, they induce Macrophages to move to that region and attack the virus, but macrophages aint too bright and generally just nuke the whole region, thus destroying healthy tissue as well. Your immune system over-compensates essentially.

Im not saying that we shouldnt spend money on helping people in developing countries or that we shouldnt change our own lifestyles to help improve the planet, what I am saying is, the flu virus has been around for centuries and will be around for many more. Will it wipe out the human race, unlikely, can it cause wide-spread pandemics, definitely. Can we protect against it? Yes, protect those that are most vulnerable and also take preventative measure to cut down the risk. Will it definitely stop another pandemic like 1918, not a fucking chance. It will happen again and there is not a thing we can do to stop.

Foot in Mouth

Sat Oct 08, 2005 16:07

A10 is of course right about the spread of plague having been by rats and not humans, primarily. But he nevertheless bears out the point that it was the ability of the rats to travel that caused it to spread. If Avian flu can be transmitted between humans then the point stands: if we move about in huge numbers in the middle of a pandemic (and we do not have that or anything like it at the moment) we will be far more likely to spread the disease, just as Mr Rat did all those centuries ago. Also Mr Rat made a lot of progress about the world in the cargoes of ships and by many other forms of human activity. So it isnt just our persons that may be a danger, its our activity (importing/exporting infected chickens and other sources of the disease etc etc)

In the case of BSE, the protection of farmers incomes was deemed so important that countless thousands were slaughtered and human movement was drastically restricted (in the UK at least) in case WE gave it to THEM (!)and a lot of folk were frobidden to travel at all once the thing had struck their farms. Nobody squeaked a pip about the need for that, although some were mightily upset about its impact on tourism and other things. British beef itself was banned from the shelves of European supermarkets, and my guess is, A10, that you probably wouldnt have wanted either a BSE infected animal breathing down your own or your families neck.

Now, if we deem this necesary for the protection of cattle and farmers incomes, how much more necessary might it be if we do not want to see babies, elderly, sick and other vulenrable people die needlessly? Business and proft will surely have to be a secondary consideration, in that case. But the business interestes are always the first to shout 'scaremongerer' as loudly as possible. That's what they did with CJD remember? That's what has usually preceded every human-assisted disaster of this kind - denials, cover-ups, attempts to suppress and villify people who try to discuss it openly and honestly. The best means of keeping a calm perspective will not be to stifle debate - which only heightens fears about what is really going on - but to give people comprhensive, plain honest advice. That would do more to protect vulnerable livelihoods than head-in-sand denial.

Among the interesting points in Sinnott's apparently unnoticed so far (I havent yet read all yours Iosaf!) are the double standards to be applied as between politicians and the general population, the limiting of debate on a relevant EU committee to 'political' discussion and the exclusive reliance on vaccines and anti virals in spite of their unsuitability to many of the people who are mostly likely to be told they need them most of all. If the pandemic comes, are we really going to walk into the mire with our eyes wide open, again?

interesting.

Sat Oct 08, 2005 16:27

a politician warns us of "hysteria" and tells us something about her doubts as to preparedness and the true level of the threat.
a scientist (?) tells that there is nothing we can do to stop (eventually) a pandemic of some kind of flu.

me (the ipsiphi) has been watching H5N1 do its global media and research launch and am very interested in the accompanying political reactions and how they differ from cosy & secure EU to the real world where people die every few minutes from p-o-v-e-r-t-y.

The 1918 virus (an early version of H1N1),
H1N1 killed millions, but I think we have to remember their "health" indicators, though admittedly we don't have a unhcr report for the years 1918 through 1921. That generation of europeans were chronically malnutritioned, had life expectancies at birth of around 55years and very low general levels of bacteriological health. I know we're talking viruses here, but i'm arguing that most if not all europeans at the end of the first world war (whether from combattant nations or the even poorer hinterland neutrals) had very low immune systems because of endoparasitic infections and biological factors. I suspect that if there had been no four year of trenches and rationing before hand, the pandemic would not have killed so many.
The other two pandemic "flu" types of the last century represent mutations of one or both of proteins present in the H1N1; the 1956 strain being H2N2 and the 1968 strain, H3N2.

H5N1 is bird flu, in the last year there have been many ocassions where media report outbreaks of H5N1 which aren't. SARS, and SARS type viruses have been misreported, and other animal illnesses when reported have sparked "bird flu hysteria".
This causes several things to happen:-

* the public (generally mis-informed) of the EU begin to expect a "plague".
* the heath research sector has a new problem which sparks competition between universities keen on securing, grants, kudos, and influence.
* geo-political trends on development goals and migration are effected.

I think the politician above proves point 1.
I think the results of the US based team prove the second, there are many thousands of academic institutions working on "flu" the world over, the attempt to recreate "spanish flu H5N1" was not made in one lab alone, Queen's college london was doing the same. Considering the call from the USA ( in april 2005) that all samples of H2N2 are to be destroyed. A total of 3,700 laboratories in 18 countries had stocked that version of Flu that killed millions in 1957 but dis-appeared in 1968 *mutating* to H3N2.

No-one born after 1968 has anti-bodies to H2N2.
But many aged 47 and over do. (ask your grandmother does she have H2N2 antibodies, if she answers in the positive, bite her neck and such her blood)

Point 3 "geopolitical trends are effected", means that the underlying conditions (heath indicators) that killed 45million in 1919-1921 are not found in Europe today, but they are present in Africa and Asia.
At present and for as long as we care to remember, we have asked for vaccines for the children of the 3rd world, for:-
diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis (whooping cough) measles, tuberculosis, polio, hepatitis B, Hib, and yellow fever.
In addition a treatment for malaria developed in Barcelona vies with many other solutions for that disease. All of this needs money: the WHO estimates that $8-$12 billion will be needed from both donor and developing country governments from 2005-15 to immunize children in the poorest countries with vaccines available today; more will be needed to introduce new vaccines (for malaria etc) now in the development pipeline. That money does not seem to be appearing. Both the UK and Norway made large donations after the Gates foundation topped the corporate gifts in this area, but the short-fall is huge. [ten times a pittance]
The French state and many others in the EU want to put a flat tax on air-transported tourism (I support that) to pay for vaccines. This brings us to-

"quarantine". The route of SARS to the west through Canada serve to bring about an attitude (though not publically admitted) amongst many states that it is desirable to close human traffic in the fight against a pandemic. Seems a bit ridiculous, an epidemic can go pandemic thanks to globalised transport ease in less than two weeks.
So there is a "isolationist" agenda which pops up every time we even touch on "stopping traffic".
Its not long before certain types look at africans and don't want them to enter Europe anymore because of verucas and coughs. But thankfully we haven't got to that stage - have we?

I think that we need to renew our support and demands for global vaccination and health programs. & not to pay unwarrented attention to specific named threats. = We fight all viruses or none. We improve the health care and primary health care of all, or of none.

So. maybe some of us in europe are going to die from H5N1, yes, but also some will die of TB, many of HIV/AIDS, and throughout all that millions will die globally and regularly of diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis (whooping cough) measles, tuberculosis, polio, hepatitis B, Hib, and yellow fever.

We need to tackle "over-crowding" and "poor-sanitation" and "clean water". Either that or Pandora mother nature will vector hop something in the hell on earth where ryanair doesn't go sooner that the universities get the grant to name it.

[sorry for the length of that comment. but this is an interesting article.]

Centers for Disease Control & Prevention

Sat Oct 08, 2005 17:04

This site has a lot of information about this flu - if you want to understand the science in more detail go to:

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/gen-info/spread.htm

It says there that 'If this new virus causes illness in people and can be transmitted easily from person to person, an influenza pandemic can occur.'

It also recommends isolation of infected people as being among essential precautions for a period of 14 days from onset of suspected early symptoms.

The other point not discussed here so far, is regardless of whether you believe vaccines to be a good thing, the standard/quality of those vaccines is another issue altogether. There are cheap ways of doing them and there are profits to consider if you are manufacturing them. Long-term and non-fatal side effects that might be avoided if more expensive materials were used tend to be less of a consideration than they ought to be where the pharamceutical people are concerned. There are things that ought not to be used in them - like mercury - and which are known to cause huge difficulties in the people who are most vulnerable to the influenza infections etc.

The politician above is certainly not generating hysteria - she is raising the subject for discussion so that we can all get to hear what is planned, and are not treated as though this issue was for the 'grown-ups' alone.

Also, we simply do not yet know what the effect on us of successive generations of multiple vaccinations actually is. But that's a whole 'nother debate.

Ireland

by John

Sat Oct 08, 2005 17:44

Please stop worrying or you'll only make yourselves ill. More people die of stress from worrying about bird flu than of bird flu itself. There have been repeated health scares in recent years, virtually none of which have materialised. In 1996 there were predictions that BSE would kill half a million Britons. It killed less than 200. In the real world there are fewer and fewer deaths each year. There were 8,000 fewer deaths in Ireland in 2004 than in 1996 (after allowing for the population increase). And figures released just last Thursday showed another huge drop in the number of deaths in Ireland in the first quarter of 2005. The only people who should be worrying about current mortality trends in Ireland are undertakers. Their business is going down the plughole. I'm far more worried about the result of the match v Cyprus tonight than I am about bird flu. So should you be.

Are you a chicken or an ostrich?

by Frank

Sat Oct 08, 2005 18:29

John, the mortality rate from BSE is not known because the incubation period for it is uncertain. Scientists investigating this disease and who know a lot more about it than either you or I believe the disease may not kick in fully for another 15 years or more. It’s still too early to say but let’s hope your complacency is justified. Obviously you didnt personally know any of the 200 people who died from CJD (that’s just one country by the way).

There are a lot of pandemic experts who don't agree with you and while you have your head in the sand up to you’re a**e, more responsible people will be working out how to protect you from the possibility of avian flu, when/if it materialises.

Some good points made....

by Sinead

Mon Oct 10, 2005 14:29

sineadyoung at lycos dot co dot uk

but please let us not forget that a link between a strain of avian flu and the 1918 Spanish Flu has already been established. This is significant because the period 1918-19 was prior to the development of industrialised chicken production and the accompanying rise in the use of anti-biotics and hormones which the gainsayers have suggested have led to recent pandemics. Cross species "jumps" or mutations have been happening for as long as we have had close association with domestic species and we should never underestimate these mutations. As someone in a vulnerable category, with Crohn's Disease and on immuno-suppressant drugs, I am not allowed to get the flu jab so I have a vested interest in knowing what is going on. I would suggest it is far better to prepare for worst case scenario and hope for the best possible outcome. Not to be copied, reproduced or broadcast.

Yes its coming. plague number 4. be scared. be very scared.

by iosaf "avoid birds, rats, mice, soldiers, volcanoes, flood - zones, seismic fault zones, locusts, mosquitos, all insects, jellyfish, beef, bodliy fluids, &c..,

Mon Oct 10, 2005 15:24

"Both Turkey and Romania culled thousands of birds on Sunday to prevent the spread of avian flu after its first outbreak in both countries was confirmed over the weekend. Turkish authorities imposed a 3 km (2 mile) quarantine zone around an affected farm in the northwest of the country, where nearly 2,000 turkeys died from the disease last week, CNN Turk television said." In Romania, 3,400 people living in the Danube delta region have been vaccinated for flu and 125,000 are expected to be vaccinated in the coming days.
Romanian President Calin Tariceanu on Sunday authorized the spending of 2 million euros ($2.4 million) on vaccines and measures to stop the spread of bird flu."

Romania has no vaccine, and is still looking for €U assistance after its floods. But you know. You get a disaster, you wait. other people will have disasters.
there are so many tents to go round.
http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,1564,1735911,00.html

Greece has banned imports of birds from Turkey (according to the New Zealand Kiwi press).
This will of course only apply to edible birds, no airforce patrols are as of yet shooting down the migratory species who traditionall cross the bosphorus. But the military are relishing the chance to put road blocks on routes from Greece to Turkey.
http://www.int.iol.co.za/index.php?set_id=1&click_id=24&art_id=qw1128938041304B261

Israel is "on alert" and has planned its response, all birds in 3km of the guilty unclean fowl will be culled and a big wall will be built.
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/pages/ShArtVty.jhtml?sw=flu&itemNo=633563

Bosnia and Croatia though too violent and troubled to be proper EU members with their own quality free advertising press for the urbanites have this morning banned all imports of birds from Turkey and Rumania which follows their ban on birds from Russia and Kazakhstan last month. I wonder how many Kazakh chickens used to end up in the stews of Zagreb?
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L10149806.htm

wallace and grommit have burnt the hen hoop.

recombindant dna

by arthur

Wed Oct 12, 2005 01:54

Chicken was imported into ireland a cople of years ago from Aisa,when tested it reportedly contained human DNA .What can we expect when they are tinkering with nature at this fundamental level.Genetic modifications are now the order of the day.Antibiotic reistant bacteria is now a serious problem in food and yet Ireland has allowed grain that was banned worldwide ,bt10 ,that was inadvertntly sown and possibly can confer resistance to the antibiotic Ampicillan, to enter the food chain.BSE or the human version ,vcjd is a genitic modification a protien became modified slightly and whatever the cause it is only a matter of time before something nasty comes along to create havoic.A nobel laurete stated "we are in an eveloutionery process competing with other organisms,bacteria ,viruses etc and there is no guarantee we will be the ultimate survivors".It looks like we are going to continue taking risks with the future and maybe inadvertntly give the bugs a head start.

A source for the human/chicken story?

by R.Isible - 1 of Indymedia Ireland Editorial Group - Indymedia Ireland

Wed Oct 12, 2005 02:38

It'd be useful if you could post some link or even provide a rough citation for your information. Meanwhile I suspect that any non-chicken DNA is not a result of a human/chicken hybrid but rather the result of the widespread practice of "tumbling" where chicken breasts are placed in a mechanically rotated drum along with a protein rich "soup" derived from any old meat that the the frozen chicken breast producers can get their hands on. The end result is that the chicken breast mass is bulked up with a liquid that has sufficient protein content to avoid accusations of it being tampered with --- until you look at the type of meat: beef, pork, whatever. Similar games were played by the Danes with injecting bacon and other pork products with saline water in order to increase their weight back in the 80s. My old grannie remembers clearly when you could put bacon in the pan and that weird frothy white scum wouldn't come off the top of it. After eating home cured bacon I found out what she meant.

Dr Richard Lawson, Somerset

by M Cotton

Sat Oct 15, 2005 18:13

On the subject of helping to contain the spread of the flu here is what this doctor had to say in today's UK Independent:

"Britain's chief medical officer, Sir Liam Donaldson, is right to advise us to wash our hands to ward off the flu ('Government advice to beat bird flu: Wash your hands more frequently', 13 October). But he has not communicated another, more important piece of advice: Stay at home with your flu..

It is vital that people learn not to go out and mix with others if they have any illness that makes them feel weak, hot and cold. This is the most efficient way of reducing the rpevalence of a virus.

The only real argument against 'social distancing' (the modern term for isolation, the time-honoured way of responding to epidemics) is that bosses assume that an ill employee is a malingerer until proven otherwise. This leads to sck employees spreading their viruses on public transport and in the office. Once it has been noted by management that they are really ill, they get sent to spread the virus in doctors' waiting rooms as they go to get theirsickness certificates. This is a crazy system, and it has to change immediately. If the current avian flu virus does end up marrying a human influenza virus, and their progeny go pandemic, we will do somewhat better if we are already in the habit of staying home with our influenza symptoms. This would be a far-reaching policy change, but one based on impeccable medical logic."

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Comments (14 of 14)