Irish Anti-War Movement and Anti-War Ireland Plans for Bush

national | anti-war / imperialism | news report Wednesday May 12, 2004 13:57 by Dominic Carroll - AWI (Anti-War Ireland) info at antiwarireland dot org

No War, No Bush

With Bush due in Shannon in June, the Irish Anti-War Movement and the recently formed Anti-War Ireland have both called demonstrations.

IAWM (Irish Anti-War Movement)
According to the IAWM, “The current plans are to hold a demonstration in Dublin, starting at Parnell Square at 19:00. We also hope to have regional demonstrations throughout the country, to coincide with this demonstration. On Saturday morning June 26th, buses will then make their way to Dromoland Castle, where Bush is staying. We then intend to march to Shannon airport to highlight our opposition to the use of this facility by the US military.”

AWI (Anti-War Ireland)
Anti-War Ireland is organising a demo at Shannon Airport for 8pm on Friday 25th June – the very place where Bush will land and where his troop carriers continue to refuel.

The Plans Subject to Scrutiny
The timing of Bush’s visit is problematic (a mere 12 hours, from midnight to noon). Nevertheless, demonstrations – to be of any value – must coincide with his presence in Ireland.

AWI
The AWI demo provides an opportunity for people to show Bush and Ahern (and the world, given the expected huge media presence in the vicinity) what we think of this pathological warmonger at the very place and moment of his arrival. Called for 8pm, it will allow those travelling from around the country to set off after work (or perhaps by leaving work early). In that sense, it’s a practical option. It’s anticipated that many will stay until midnight to “unwelcome” Bush as his plane touches down. Nevertheless, those that can’t make that commitment will be able to participate in the demo earlier in the evening. This is not to underestimate the effort involved in joining the Shannon protest, but given the special circumstances, it’s believed that people will feel inspired and willing.

IAWM
For the purpose of Bush’s visit, the IAWM has established the Stop Bush Campaign. However, for the purpose of this discussion, I will refer to the IAWM since it is the driving force behind Stop Bush (and, it might be added, the driving force behind the IAWM is, without question, the SWP).
Following the Friday night demos, IAWM buses will make their way to Domoland Castle for a Saturday morning protest (an earlier – unworkable and apparently shelved – plan envisaged buses travelling through the night). To be in Dromoland before Bush leaves, buses will have to depart in the wee hours, and numbers will likely be small. From Dromoland, demonstrators will “march” to Shannon Airport. I understand that the distance is 8 miles. Surely the IAWM actually means that the buses will transport people to Shannon. Be that as it may, the Dromoland protest is token, and the Shannon protest is merely an add-on, possibly as an attempt by the IAWM to undermine the AWI Shannon protest on Friday evening. Why would they do this?
The IAWM, dominated as it is by the SWP, has long since decided against demos at Shannon, preferring instead marches in Dublin (the reasons have been discussed elsewhere on this website:
http://www.indymedia.ie/newswire.php?story_id=63749
The plan for Bush has lately been expanded to include regional demos. According to the Irish Examiner (11th May), Galway and Tralee have signed up. No other regional demo has yet been announced, and the IAWM has so far failed to support the AWI demo, even as a “regional” demo. Yet, Richard Boyd Barrett (Chairperson of the IAWM) was quoted in the Irish Examiner as saying that he expects a million people – yes, 1,000,000 – to protest against Bush. This highly inflated expectation could be the root of the problem.

The Numbers Game
For the IAWM, numbers are key. A demo in Dublin – it asserts – will draw hundreds of thousands. A demo in Shannon, it knows, will necessarily be smaller. For the IAWM, there’s no argument. The value of any demo is judged purely and solely by a head-count, and demos in capital (and populous) cities will usually draw the biggest number.
I would argue that the IAWM anticipated turn-out for Dublin is highly unrealistic and brings into question the judgement of those leading the IAWM. And though the turn-out at a Dublin demo will undoubtedly be larger than the turn-out at Shannon demos, the protest against Bush in Shannon will have more impact (in much the same way that the Carnsore Point campaign succeeded by focussing on Wexford rather than Dublin, and in much the same way that countless demonstrations the world over have been effective regardless of numbers participating – Tianamen Square a notable example).
Given that the IAWM demo will be on a Friday evening (and that the AWI is holding a simultaneous demo in Shannon), the IAWM has realised that significant participation from beyond Dublin is unlikely. At this point, the IAWM could have called for those closer to Shannon (Limerick, Cork, Tralee, Galway, etc.) to support the AWI demo at Shannon Airport. But that would be to cede some ground to the AWI – anathema, it seems, to certain elements within the IAWM. Instead, it has put out the call for regional demos. However, the IAWM is rather thin on the ground – as are all anti-war groups, the AWI included – and the organisational structure simply doesn’t exist for pulling off these regional demos which, with the addition of Dublin, are supposed to mobilise a million people (an incredible increase of 997,500 people on the 2,500 who marched in the IAWM national demo on 20th March).

The Reality
For political reasons (Shannon is a cog in the US war machine and Bush will be there), the IAWM should have supported the AWI call for a national demonstration at Shannon Airport for the evening Bush arrives (as the sole protest, rather than competing with Dublin). The IAWM, working in tandem with other anti-war groups (real anti-war groups, the AWI included, rather than the plethora of paper and non-functioning groups the IAWM routinely has endorse it), may well have mobilised upwards of 5,000–10,000 people at Shannon. This would have been a magnificent demonstration.
Be that as it may, the real picture is likely to be as follows: IAWM demo in Dublin: 15,000; AWI demo in Shannon: 2,000; Regional demos: negligible. These figures are based on what I consider to be a true estimation of the willingness to protest when Bush comes. Regardless of the obvious and widespread opposition to Bush and the war in Iraq, it’s nothing short of fantasy to imagine that a million people will protest. This, I believe, is called setting yourself up for a fall and, as I stated above, poses serious questions about the IAWM’s leadership, not to mention its credibility.

As convenor of the AWI demo for Shannon, I would urge those opposed to Bush to make the Friday evening demo at Shannon a priority (and a success). I would further encourage those who can’t make Shannon but are in a position to join the IAWM march in Dublin to do so. I further call on the membership of the IAWM (individuals and affiliated organisations, such as the Socialist Party) to demand that the IAWM Steering Committee supports the AWI demonstration at Shannon Airport just as the AWI supports IAWM marches in Dublin, Tralee and Galway.