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Making Sense of the Current "2nd Wave" Covid numbers using Gov Stats. No Need to Panic or Lockdown

category national | politics / elections | feature author Sunday October 18, 2020 00:28author by T Report this post to the editors

A brief analysis using HSPC's own stats to show there is no need for panic

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Cases / detections are rising but death barely.
No need for Level 5

The country is in the grip of Covid-19 fear. The public have been frightened using manipulative figures and by emphasis on case numbers which are meaningless. Many are very concerned and know we face economic ruin and worry about the future. Mental health issues are widespread and critical. People are only reluctantly agreeing to any of this out of fear and want the whole thing to end. The media, politicians, and the medical bureaucrats with conflicts of interest have been criminal in their actions and the Left has attempted to hijack the fear to shamelessly pretend they are protecting workers when they are simply acting as shrills for multi-national Pharmaceutical & vaccine industry and thereby pushing the agenda of the Great Reset promoted by the World Economic Forum (WEF) who are the voice of the global capitalist oligarchy. Not only that anyone with a different opinion is accused as being right-wing and racist and while indeed elements on the right are have taken an position against the official narrative, it is disingenuous and arrogant of the Left to label and shame people who are against the (ineffective) masks and restrictions as being somehow misled and anti-science when they side with Orwellian Big Tech who censor and silence real doctors and scientists trying to get their voice out to counter the official narrative. With that backdrop in mind, at the same time, we have been hearing for the last two or three weeks that cases are rising exponentially and it all seems out of control. It appears the number of deaths is rising and the media seem to be reporting the country's hospital ICU capacity is about to be over run and we are in some sort of deadly "2nd wave" which they long hoped for. The government's own figures show this is not actually the case at all and it is all smoke and mirrors.

As we speak the government is due to meet to decide whether to put the whole country in lockdown for a massive 6 weeks at Level 5 which is basically a full lockdown. NPHET have been strongly advising for this to happen for the last two or three weeks and when the government refused to put the country in lockdown a week or two ago, NPHET were furious that their minions in the government did not follow their orders. It remains to be seen whether government ministers will like bold children repent and obey NPHET orders.

In this brief report we take the government's or rather the Health Preventive Surveillance Centre, HPSC, figures to show that the impression of out of control Covid and soaring death rate is not actually happening and there is no need for heightened fear or lockdown.

The daily reports going from the HPSC since the start have been misleading. You can find any of their daily reports online at https://www.gov.ie and in all of these reports they promote the number of cases and most of their tables and graphs are of cases. You have to look hard to find anything about deaths. Yet surely the whole point and fear is death. That is the thing that counts. Not cases. Attached is one of their reports from Oct 16th as a PDF.

We are regularly told that 80% of those who get Covid have basically no symptoms. This does not mean the other 20% die or end up in hospital. It means they have symptoms such a cold, fever, aches and so forth. A much smaller percent end up in hospital and an even smaller percent end up death.

A lot of testing is triggered because people are using the Covid-App and whenever an alert is generated all those tracked and who were briefly in contact with the person are generally asked to take a test. It follows that if 80% have no symptoms, then more or less the same number who test positive also have no symptoms. This should calm people down to know then that even if 1,000 test positive, 800 of these people probably have NO symptoms.

Separately there is the issue of the test itself which is based on the PCR method which was invented by Nobel Prize winner Kary Mullis (who died last year) and had strongly advised that this method of DNA testing should NOT be used in a medical setting for a variety of reasons due to extreme sensitivity to contamination and risk of false positives and negatives. Thus the test is not very reliable.

The second point is that this test is probably picking up fragments of the shattered virus from people who had infections anything from weeks to months ago. It is also known to trigger positives against other corona-viruses. The common cold is a corona-virus and potentially could lead to a false positve So in order words all this constant presentation of case numbers is meaningless and the associated scare mongering completely unjustified. And at the moment, there is a common cold doing the rounds and many have caught it despite all the social distancing in place. Are we to expect that somehow the social distancing is working for Covid? The true facts are that the vast majority of people were probably long ago exposed to Covid and since the scale of testing has now been ramped up to a massive 10,000 test per day, all that those cases are measuring are previous exposures..

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So now lets look at the figures. The first of the two graphs here is from the HPSC daily report for Oct 16th show the daily and cumulative number of cases. As you can see the number of cases is higher than it was at the height of the situation back in April. The next graph shows the daily and cumulative deaths. It is very evident there is no increase like there was in March / April, happening now.

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The third graph has superimposed these two graphs together to help put them together. One should note the vertical axis for the cases ranges from 0 to 1,000 for the cases but from 0 to 60 for deaths. So you should be looking at the shape of the curves and not their size relative to each other.

The key point and the one which should calm everyone down is that there is virtually no rise in deaths even though the so called "cases" which are really probably detections of all kinds of things are rising massively. But they are rising because they are doing a massive level of testing. It stands to reason the more tests you carry out, the more detections you will find. But the most important item of concern is whether the number of deaths has gone up. It hasn't in any meaningful way. So people need to get a grip and stop panic. What they media fail to inform you is that on average every month in Ireland, 700 people are dying from cancer. Yet we have been terrorized and brought to a standstill over a couple of Covid deaths. What is going on ?.

Media Coverage

On the 6pm RTE news this evening (Sat 17th Oct) RTE reported the following:
30 admissions to ICU and 8 deaths.

You would think then that there are 30 ICU admissions a day surely and 8 deaths but no. In fact the 8 deaths seem to be corrections made for previous months which were added to today and the 30 ICU admissions are strange but when the HPSC's own figures were analysed it shows there were 35 ICU admissions between Oct 1st and Oct 16th or just 2.2 per day ! NOT 30 per day as they imply by their underhand sly reporting

They do not tell either whether some of the people who entered ICU a week or two ago have since left. They are trying to imply we are running out of ICU beds.

Another trick they use is to say the mean age for "cases" is 34 which is probably correct. But they immediately follow that statement with death figures. The idea is once again to imply that those dying are now a mean age of 34. This is not the case. They mean for death remains the same at 80+. The fact that the mean age for "cases" is irrelevant. Practically all of these people will barely even know they have it and as stated already the test is simply recording previous exposure.

See how they used a cumulative figure to give the impression it was a daily figure. It is not.

They did the same for deaths. Again using HPSC's own figures, the author took all the reports for Oct so far which only report cumulative figures. They don't bother give daily ones which they could easily provide but they do their utmost to make it difficult to figure out. You have to work the daily rates by simply subtracting the cumulative from a given day's figures from the previous day. These are all presented in the charts below. When the analysis is done, we see 37 deaths so far in October. This implies approximately 2.3 deaths per day and NOT higher values such as this evenings 6pm news figure of 8 deaths would suggest if you weren't paying attention to what they said.. If you look at the second table below you can see the death rate per day is pretty constant and not rising to some catastrophic doom laden amount that will decimate the population.

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As stated above, the main 6pm RTE news this evening (Sat 17th Oct) said 8 deaths. But many would have missed it, but they oddly said that of these deaths 1 was from June, 2 from Sept and 5 were from Oct. Very confusing. It appears these may be a correction. The last image shows a screenshot from the government website their explanation. All very odd.

It seems there was perhaps zero deaths today so they decided to apply the correction so that it sounded like more and it sounded like things were getting out of control. But as you can see from the graph above and the figures below the deaths are up slightly and are NOT rising sharply.

At this point when you look at the graphs, tables and figures, you would have to agree that maybe focusing on the case numbers is rather futile and misleading. In addition the whole point of any lockdown is to reduce deaths and ICU admissions but the figures show neither of these are increasing in any meaningful way.

What does happen every year is that as the winter arrives the number of people who are admitted to hospital / ICU and or who die, goes up anyhow and the slight increase we see is simply part of this normal annual occurence.

The question we are left with then is why are locking down and why can't the mainstream media present the analysis here?

gov_oct16th_covid_report.jpg

PDF Document Epidemiology of COVID-19 in Ireland Report prepared by HPSC on 16/10/2020 for National Public Health Emergency Team 1.71 Mb

author by newspublication date Mon Oct 19, 2020 21:13author address author phone Report this post to the editors

Michéal Martin in his address tonight has basically said these restrictions will continue until a "safe" vaccine arrives. This is what the naysayers have been saying all along. He ruled out Swedish style herd immunity even though it works. So big pharma is calling the shots and has won the day. How long before they announce it is mandatory vaccine?

 
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